As a seasoned crypto investor with over five years of experience navigating this dynamic market, I’ve learned to read between the lines when it comes to Bitcoin (BTC) price movements and underlying indicators. The recent surge and correction of BTC has me intrigued rather than alarmed.
Between October 27th and October 29th, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced an increase of approximately 9.7%, peaking at $73,575. However, it later retreated to test the $71,500 level on October 30th. Despite this price correction, various factors such as derivatives market activity, on-chain metrics, and demand for stablecoins indicate a robust base that could potentially support a prolonged surge above $73,000 in the coming days.
However, the premium on Bitcoin futures contracts, a significant indicator of demand among leverage-using bullish investors, suggests that these investors have a high level of confidence in the cryptocurrency’s future price rise.
Under normal market circumstances, monthly futures contracts on average have a built-in annualized premium of between 5% and 10%, due to the extended settlement period. However, this current premium of 13% is at its peak in more than four months, demonstrating no signs of weakening, even though Bitcoin failed to break through $73,575.
The cost of Bitcoin generally mirrored that of gold. Initially, gold reached a record peak of $2,790 on October 30th, but later, it seemed to slow down its upward trend.
Gold’s recent decline might be partially explained by the economic data published on October 30th. For instance, the private payrolls report for the US revealed a job increase of 233,000 in October. Furthermore, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the US third-quarter GDP grew at 2.8%, which is slightly less than the 3% growth experienced during the previous quarter.
By boosting its ability to withstand economic shocks, this economic resilience lessens the need for the Federal Reserve to make drastic reductions in interest rates, thereby decreasing the urgency for investors to seek out other financial assets such as gold and Bitcoin in the short term.
Additionally, while a robust economy might be assumed to drive demand for U.S. government bonds, it’s important to note that growing public deficits can actually cause worry about refinancing costs, leading to an increase in yields on government debt. For instance, yields on the 5-year U.S. Treasury have climbed from 3.5% to 4.1% over the past month due to these concerns.
Bitcoin onchain and derivatives metrics signal optimism
In light of the ongoing doubts about the impact of U.S. economic policies, it’s hardly shocking that Bitcoin has held strong even during a temporary price dip. Interestingly, there was a significant influx of deposits into exchanges when Bitcoin’s value exceeded $70,000 on October 29th, suggesting that some traders were ready to cash in at those levels.
According to Glassnode data, the trend of Bitcoin moving out of wallets appeared to reverse as of October 30, with outflows becoming more common than inflows. Initially, some traders seemed to sell Bitcoin around its record high, but this selling spree was brief and fell within typical trading patterns.
Investigating the demand for stablecoins within the Chinese market can provide further understanding of sentiment. Generally, high demand for cryptocurrencies causes stablecoin prices to rise by approximately 2% above the U.S. dollar. Conversely, a decrease in price suggests that traders are selling off cryptocurrencies out of fear.
The data shows a slight decrease in the premium for stablecoins in China, going from 0.7% to 0.3%. This figure remains within a neutral range, signaling market stability. Despite Bitcoin‘s significant drop of $2,140 on October 30th, this trend suggests that the market is robust. Moreover, when you consider additional factors such as on-chain metrics and derivatives signals, there is strong evidence indicating that traders continue to have faith in Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its bullish trend in the short term.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of CryptoMoon.
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2024-10-30 22:51