As a seasoned researcher with a decade of experience observing and analyzing financial markets, I have seen my fair share of market phenomena that defy conventional wisdom. The current Bitcoin rally seems to be no exception, as it appears to be correlated with former President Donald Trump’s rising odds in the presidential election.
The ongoing surge in Bitcoin’s price might be due to investors placing a wager on the re-election of former President Donald Trump. If he wins, there could be a “sell the news” occurrence following the election, meaning prices may drop after the positive news has been announced.
On October 29th, the value of Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed $73,600, marking its peak since March 2024 and standing less than $200 away from setting a brand-new record high.
Although Bitcoin appears to be connected to the increasing likelihood of Trump winning the presidential election, this doesn’t automatically mean that there will be a long-lasting rally after the election.
In a recent post on October 30th, the anonymous cryptocurrency expert known as “The Giver” proposed that Bitcoin could serve as an indicator or proxy for a possible victory of Donald Trump in the upcoming elections.
“The direction of the election does not drive a price-dependent outcome; rather Bitcoin is currently being used as a liquid proxy to hedge a Trump win.”
The prediction comes just days before the US presidential election on Nov. 5, which has become a focal point for crypto investors. The election outcome could influence crypto regulations and market movements until 2028.
Bitcoin’s October gains: Trump pump or proxy?
As an analyst, I’ve noticed a striking correlation between the surge in Bitcoin’s price in October and the increasing odds of Donald Trump’s victory in the global prediction market, Polymarket. This intriguing link suggests that political uncertainty, particularly around election outcomes, could potentially influence the cryptocurrency market dynamics.
On October 16th, the price of Bitcoin peaked at an approximately two and a half month maximum of around $68,200, coinciding with an all-time high of 60.2% for Trump’s chances of winning, while Harris’ prospects dropped to 39.8%.
On October 28th, Bitcoin reached a new high of $70,000 for the first time since June 10th. At the same time, the chances of Donald Trump winning the election exceeded 66.3%.
Yet, the increase in Trump’s chances isn’t directly causing Bitcoin’s price hike. It was pointed out that there’s an increasing belief in a Trump win, which was considered “undervalued” before.
“Consensus is viewing ‘the Trump trade’ incorrectly; the effect is not causation where increasing Trump odds linearly creates a vacuum for BTC to perform, but rather the basket of assets that have gone up this month reflect a Trump win having being underpriced entering the month.”
Macroeconomic conditions are “insufficient” for a post-election all-time high
Even though Bitcoin prices are rising, current economic conditions aren’t strong enough yet to push the cryptocurrency market to a fresh record high.
The analyst explained:
“Easing conditions” present today for manufacturing a new TOTAL-high is insufficient. The correlation of rates and other popular heuristics to faction liquidity is much weaker than popular rhetoric suggests, with signs pointing toward price ultimately being suppressed rather than price discovery.”
In simpler terms, quantitative easing is a monetary strategy used by central banks. They buy a fixed number of government bonds, which in turn increases the money supply and boosts economic activity by providing more funds (liquidity) into the system.
Central bank liquidity infusions frequently propel Bitcoin‘s value, as they prompt investors to explore greater yields in non-traditional investments.
There seems to be a greater sense of optimism among some people regarding Bitcoin’s future after the election. Particularly, analysts from Bitfinex anticipate a surge in Bitcoin’s value, potentially reaching $80,000 by the end of 2024. This prediction is based on the structure of the options market and the possibility of a Republican winning the presidential race.
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2024-10-30 15:12