Bitcoin ‘wild’ odds see 85% chance of BTC price above $100K by New Year

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As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I have seen my fair share of bull and bear cycles. The prediction that Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by the end of 2024 seems audacious to me, but then again, so did the idea of a digital currency worth six figures just a few years ago.

According to prediction markets, Bitcoin (BTC) could end the year priced at $125,000 or higher, with optimistic investors maintaining a strong push towards six-figure values.

According to data from betting platform Kalshi, there’s about an 85% likelihood that Bitcoin’s price will reach $100,000 by the end of 2024.

BTC price faces “wild” $127,000 forecast

It hasn’t reached $100,000 as of now, but there’s broad agreement among experts that it’s more a question of “when” rather than “if” this milestone will be achieved.

As per the latest data from Kalshi, there’s an approximately 85% chance that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) versus the U.S. dollar (USD) will be $100,000 or more by December 31st.

There’s approximately a 9% likelihood they could reach $150,000 within that period, and there’s also a chance for a bigger win, potentially exceeding $250,000.

All in, Kalshi’s median forecast sees a $125,000 BTC price tag becoming a reality by the new year.

Apparently, prediction markets indicate an increasing likelihood of a significant surge in prices beyond $100,000, as pointed out by The Kobeissi Letter on X. They labeled these figures as extremely high or ‘wild.’

Kobeissi noted that Bitcoin’s market cap may end up at $2.5 trillion by Jan. 1.

Bitcoin ETFs battle profit-takers

In November alone, Bitcoin has increased by close to 40%, and its total gain in the fourth quarter stands at approximately 55%. This means that, so far this year, Bitcoin’s performance is nearly on par with the last quarter of 2023, according to data from CoinGlass.

Since Bitcoin surpassed its previous record high from March, there has been little pause or opportunity for retesting in the price increase.

Some people believe that a pullback might occur soon to strengthen possible future growth, but so far, the market hasn’t shown any indications of deceleration.

$100,000 remains Bitcoin’s most significant psychological barrier.

According to CryptoMoon’s report, there is a battle between large-scale investors pouring in and long-time coin holders who have been holding onto their crypto for many years.

According to Glassnode’s recent newsletter, titled “The Week Onchain,” ETFs have taken on a significant function, managing to absorb approximately 90% of the selling pressure from Long-Term Holders.

“However, as unrealized profits reach more extreme levels, we can expect more LTH spending, which in the immediate term has outpaced ETF inflows.”

In the past five trading days, ending on November 22nd, U.S. Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) had their highest weekly inflows since they began operation, and the total value of assets managed by these ETFs now exceeds $100 billion.

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2024-11-23 16:55