Bitcoin’s All-Time Low: The Market Groans, Traders Wake Up 😂

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In the cold dawn of the market, the great Bitcoin hoarders turn their faces away from the furnace of speculation. Their hands loosen from the iron grip of their wallets, and over the year roughly 220,000 Bitcoin have slipped from the grasp of a cohort that once rattled the city with its appetite. This is no roar of disaster but a measured withdrawal, the kind a weary crowd makes when it learns to endure with less bread. 😅

This could be a reallocation and not a distribution, a rearrangement of the ledger rather than a victory march to oblivion. A tired AMBCrypto report stares at the Value Days Destroyed metric to illuminate the point. Meanwhile the network’s hashrate growth stalls, for Bitcoin trades below the miners’ breakeven cost of $95k-$96k, as if the engines of industry have paused for a smoke and a sigh.

Promise of all-time low realized volatility

The whales trim their exposure, the pressure on miners grows heavier, and Bitcoin wears its stress like a weathered coat-not yet in capitulation, but certainly not dressed for celebration. Fidelity notes that the 1-year realized volatility has fallen to a veritable low of 42%, as if the market’s nerves have learned to whisper rather than shout. 🤨

When volatility bottoms out, as it did in 2016 and 2023, the tendency is to raise a banner and dream of a new all-time high. The argument that the four-year cycle is fading rests on the notion that maturity and institutional money will spare us the 80% bear bruises, like a stern parent steering a stubborn child away from danger.

That said, caution remains a companion. Low volatility can hide months of quiet stagnation before the future dares to move upward, if it dares at all. 🫤

Cost-basis comparison shows new whales could be threat to bulls

On CryptoQuant Insights, user Arab Chain lays bare the ledger, showing that long-term whales and Bitcoin miners remain in the black. LTH whales’ realized price sits at $39.6k per Bitcoin, while miner whales’ realized price sits at $58.6k.

At the moment of writing, the price hovers above these thresholds, lending a stubborn, if wary, stability to the long arc of the market. 🤔

Yet even this is no shield against short-term storms or a deeper correction. In a post on X, crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr lays out his long-range expectations for Bitcoin with the gravity of a foreman calling the shift.

New whales, those with holdings aged under 155 days, carry a realized price around $99k. They would shudder at locking money away for two years; instead they would ride a bounce to $99k and exit at break-even, as if slamming shut a stubborn door just as dawn appears. 🌓

Final Thoughts

  • All-time low in realized volatility tends to be followed by new all-time highs in price, which could take months to play out, if it does.
  • New whales could dictate whether Bitcoin manages to regain the $99k supply zone.

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2026-01-10 09:20