Bitcoin’s Bear Market: 90 Days of Drama and Dips! 🐻💸

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So, here we are in the current Bitcoin (BTC) bear market, which is basically like a bad breakup—defined as a 20% or more drop from the all-time high. But don’t worry, according to market analyst and author of Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin’s Value, Timothy Peterson, this drama should only last for 90 days. Just enough time to binge-watch a few seasons of your favorite show! 📺

Peterson took a stroll down memory lane, comparing this downturn to the 10 previous bear markets that pop up like unwanted guests at a party—roughly once a year. He noted that only four of those bear markets were worse than this one in terms of duration. Spoiler alert: 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2024 are the real party poopers. 🎉

Now, don’t start crying into your crypto pillow just yet! Peterson predicts that BTC won’t sink below the $50,000 mark because, you know, people are still adopting it like it’s the latest iPhone. But he also mentioned that it’s unlikely BTC will dip below $80,000. So, we’re not exactly in the danger zone, folks! 🚫

“There may be a slide in the next 30 days followed by a 20-40% rally sometime after April 15. You can see that in the charts around day 120. This would probably be enough of a headline to bring weak hands back into the market and propel Bitcoin even higher.”

Meanwhile, crypto markets took a nosedive after President Trump decided to play tariff tag with several US trading partners. This sparked counter-tariffs on US exports, leading to fears of a prolonged trade war. Because nothing says “let’s invest” like a good old-fashioned trade war, right? 🙄

Investors flee risk-on assets over trade war fears

Investor appetite for speculative assets is declining faster than my will to go to the gym during winter. Thanks, trade war and macroeconomic uncertainty! 🏋️‍♀️

The Glassnode Hot Supply metric, which measures BTC owned for one week or less, dropped from 5.9% during the historic bull rally in November 2024 to a mere 2.3% as of March 20. Talk about a cold shoulder! ❄️

According to Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard, crypto markets will be feeling the trade war pressure until April 2025. So, mark your calendars for some potential relief—if we can negotiate our way out of this mess! 📅

And in a shocking twist, a recent analysis from CryptoQuant revealed that most retail traders are already invested in BTC. So much for the hope of a massive rush of new traders to save the day! Looks like we’re all in this together, folks! 🤝

Oh, and let’s not forget: the trade war has put Bitcoin’s safe haven narrative in serious doubt. The price of our beloved decentralized asset took a hit over tariff headlines, just like my self-esteem after a bad haircut. 💇‍♀️

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2025-03-22 22:36