Bitcoin’s Big Bet: Will the Fed Save It or Sink It? 💸

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Key Wonders of the Bitcoin World:

  • The Fed, that fickle friend, is less likely to cut rates than a grumpy goblin in a sock. 🐞

  • BTC might plunge to $112,000 if support crumbles—like a sad balloon in a hurricane. 🧨

Bitcoin, that stubborn little muppet, stayed put at $118,200, watching the world with a “what now?” expression. 🤔

97% Chance Interest Rates Stay the Same

The FOMC, that mysterious group of bankers, started their meeting, expecting to keep rates the same. But don’t worry, the Fed is as predictable as a chocolate fountain. 🍫

Trump, that loud neighbor, is shouting for lower rates, but the Fed is as stubborn as a donkey in a hat. 🐴

Polymarket, the wise owl of the market, says there’s a 97.5% chance rates stay the same. But who’s counting? 🕵️‍♂️

A common market belief is that any bearish price action from unchanged rates is already priced in. Like a magician’s trick—no surprise, just awe. 🎩

Traders, those nervous little creatures, panicked on Tuesday, dumping their bags in fear. But they’ll probably FOMO buy back in, like a kid chasing a rainbow. 🌈

“People likely dumped their bags in fear. But they’ll probably end up FOMO buying back in at higher prices after the Fed speaks,” the analyst added, explaining that it’s a familiar pattern that has historically preceded strong moves in August. 🎬

“Then August hits, everything goes parabolic. And the sidelined traders? They end up chasing, again.”

Therefore, the market will keenly watch Powell’s language at the FOMC news conference to see if there’s any shift in tone. Like a kid watching a magician—waiting for the trick. 🎩

“Investors will be listening very carefully to the Fed chair, and a dovish posture can influence the market,” said markets commentator James DePorre in an X post on Wednesday. 🍪🌈

“The cut matters, but Powell’s words at the press conference are more important,” OptionsTrading101 told their X followers on Tuesday. 🧠

Traders are also eyeing Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report, like a kid eyeing a candy store. 🍬

What’s Next for Bitcoin Price?

Currently, $120,000 is the key level. A breakout could lead to new highs, like a rocket ship. 🚀

“A confirmed breakout beyond this zone could shift market dynamics, bringing the $141K region into focus,” Glassnode said in its latest “Week Onchain” report. ⚡

The $141,000 level matches two standard deviations above the STH realized price. As shown in the chart below. 🧮

Glassnode added:

“This is an area where key onchain metrics suggest profit-taking could sharply intensify.”

Another level to watch is $125,000, which represents the STH cost basis pushed one standard deviation higher. Like a seesaw—up, then down. 🪑

On the downside, traders should keep an eye on Bitcoin’s STH cost basis at $105,400 and the yearly open around $93,000, which appears to coincide with the STH cost basis pushed one standard deviation lower. Like a clock ticking down to a surprise party. ⏳

A chart shared by popular analyst Killa suggests $114,000-$116,000 as a key area of interest, as the BTC price could drop below it to fill the fair gap value to $112,000 before recovering. 🎢

A big “What if” for $BTC.

Same mechanic as last range or…. only 2 lows. Time to fuck around an find out. 😂

— Killa (@KillaXBT) July 30, 2025

Similarly, SuperBitcoinBro, an anonymous BTC analyst, highlighted that Bitcoin could sweep down to as low as $112,000 first before a “squeeze higher” with the next major liquidity cluster between $119,800 and $121,000. 🎾

Nebraskangooner, another Bitcoin analyst, said that the BTC price will remain in range “until Powell speaks to make a big move.” Like a cat waiting for a mouse. 🐱

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2025-07-30 13:49