Bitcoin’s Bounce? More Like a Slight Wobble! 🚀

What to know:

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)-a reminder that time zones are as confusing as a well-timed punchline. 😏

The crypto market, ever the optimist, is attempting to regain its composure, with Bitcoin eyeing a lofty $110,000-though one suspects it’s more of a hopeful glance than a confident stride. 🎩💼 The CoinDesk 20 Index has risen over 1% in the past 24 hours, alongside double-digit gains in tokens like HYPE, KHYPE, and XMR. A veritable parade of optimism, if you’ll forgive the metaphor. 🎉

Social media’s bullish sentiment is as reliable as a broken watch-except, of course, when the Fed whispers sweet nothings about rate cuts. 🗣️💸 Still, the dollar index is as bullish as a peacock in a storm. A strengthening dollar could limit BTC’s ambitions, much like a wet blanket on a bonfire. 🧥☔

Risk proxies like the iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) and Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) are as supportive as a wet blanket at a party. 🧥☔ Both have recently penetrated key support levels. (Check the TA section). Meanwhile, key volume studies point to underlying weakness in the bitcoin market-like a house of cards built on sand. 🏗️

Taken together, these factors validate the persistent put bias in BTC options listed on Deribit and Standard Chartered’s short-term bearish outlook. A gloomy outlook, but at least it’s consistent. 😒

Founders of the newsletter service LondonCryptoClub said that the recent banking funding stress and liquidity tightening are “keeping BTC anchored and negatively impacting underlying risk dynamics.” Still, they added that the bull run is far from over, pointing to lower bond yields and economic slowdown risks as catalysts for aggressive Fed easing that could cause a “melt up.” A melt up? More like a slow drip. 🧊

In traditional markets, oil rose 4% on both sides of the Atlantic after the U.S. imposed sanctions on major Russian suppliers Rosneft and Lukoil over the Ukraine war. Increased volatility in the oil market could cause risk aversion. Stay alert! Or, as I prefer to say, stay entertained. 🎭

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”-because nothing says “excitement” like a cryptic title. 🤔

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”-a title so vague, it’s practically a riddle. 🤔

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”-a phrase that’s as informative as a wink. 🤭

Day 2 of 2: London Blockchain Conference 🇬🇧
Day 2 of 2: Valencia Digital Summit 2025 (Valencia, Spain) 🇪🇸
Oct. 23: Wall Street Blockchain Alliance Crypto & Blockchain Summit 2025 (New York) 🇺🇸

Token Talk

By Francisco Rodrigues

Jupiter’s native token, JUP, rose more than 3% in the last 24 hours after the decentralized exchange posted strong growth across key business metrics in the third quarter. A rise so modest, it’s almost dignified. 🎩
The Solana-based project is also pushing to launch its own stablecoin and prediction market. A stablecoin? How pedestrian. 🤪
Quarterly revenue rose 19.2% to $45.8 million, while trading volume, driven by both spot and perpetual products, jumped 71% to $242.8 billion. A number so large, it’s practically a palindrome. 🔄
Fees generated reached $121.5 million, up nearly 48% from the second quarter. Despite the growth, JUP’s market cap edged down 1.5% to $1.35 billion. A decline so slight, it’s almost a compliment. 😎
Jupiter attributed the growth to new product rollouts, including its Ultra v3 trading engine and a lending protocol that the team says is one of the fastest-growing on Solana. Fastest-growing? Or just the most eager? 🏃‍♂️
JUP outperformed the wider crypto market, which rose 1.6% based on the performance of the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index. A performance so lackluster, it’s almost inspiring. 🌟

Derivatives Positioning

Open interest (OI) in HYPE futures surged 17% in 24 hours, reaching a two-week high of 40.24 million HYPE. Occurring alongside a rise in price and positive funding rates, the increase indicates growing demand for leveraged bullish exposure. A demand so fervent, it’s practically a love letter. ❤️
OI in BTC and ETH has barely changed, a sign traders are reluctant to place bets ahead of Friday’s U.S. CPI release. A reluctance so profound, it’s almost a rebellion. 🚫
Volmex’s BVIV, which measures the annualized 30-day implied volatility in BTC, has pulled back slightly to 50% but remains well above the September low of 35%. The elevated level reflects persistent concerns arising from newfound risks like auto-deleveraging and liquidity issues. A concern so persistent, it’s almost a habit. 🧠
Funding rates for major cryptocurrencies continue to hover near zero in a sign of balanced market conditions. XMR and BNB rates are slightly negative, indicating a bias for bearish short positions. A balance so tenuous, it’s practically a tightrope walk. 🎭
On Deribit, flows featured BTC put spreads. Overall, puts continue to trade at a premium to calls. A premium so steep, it’s almost a tax. 📉

Market Movements

BTC is up 1.63% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $109,459.82 (24hrs: +1.74%) 🎯
ETH is up 2.92% at $3,892.29 (24hrs: +2.05%) 🎯
CoinDesk 20 is up 2.57% at 3,602.20 (24hrs: +1.59%) 🎯
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 3 bps at 2.86% 📈
BTC funding rate is at 0.0038% (4.1303% annualized) on Binance 📊

DXY is up 0.15% at 99.04 💵
Gold futures are up 1.73% at $4,135.80 💰
Silver futures are up 2.22% at $48.74 💰
Nikkei 225 closed down 1.35% at 48,641.61 📉
Hang Seng closed up 0.72% at 25,967.98 📈
FTSE is up 0.43% at 9,555.49 📈
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.21% at 5,650.92 📈
DJIA closed on Wednesday down 0.71% at 46,590.41 📉
S&P 500 closed down 0.53% at 6,699.40 📉
Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.93% at 22,740.40 📉
S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.32% at 29,982.98 📈
S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.49% at 2,894.55 📈
U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 4 bps at 3.993% 📈
E-mini S&P 500 futures are little changed at 6,738.50 📉
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are little changed at 25,057.25 📉
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.24% at 46,672.00 📉

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 59.79% (-0.12%) 🎯
Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03557 (0.57%) 📊
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,116 EH/s 🔋
Hashprice (spot): $47.17 💵
Total Fees: 2.89 BTC / $312,945 🧾
CME Futures Open Interest: 142,385 BTC 📊
BTC priced in gold: 26 oz 🧾
BTC vs gold market cap: 7.34% 🧾

Technical Analysis

The iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) recently dived out of a bullish trendline, signaling renewed seller dominance. A dive so dramatic, it’s practically a circus act. 🎪
The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLF) prolonged range play has resolved bearishly. A resolution so inevitable, it’s almost a given. 🎯
These breakdowns suggest potential for a broad-based risk aversion ahead. A risk aversion so pervasive, it’s practically a rule. 🚫

Crypto Equities

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $320.33 (-5.4%), +0.94% at $323.33 in pre-market 📉
Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $124.79 (-3.9%), +1.69% at $126.90 📈
Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $37.34 (-12.88%), +1.23% at $37.80 📉
Bullish (BLSH): closed at $52.63 (-8.1%), +1.48% at $53.41 📉
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $19.15 (-4.58%), +1.36% at $19.41 📈
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $18.99 (-8.13%), +1.21% at $19.22 📉
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.8 (-7.44%), +2.36% at $18.22 📈
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $16.86 (-10.18%), +2.43% at $17.27 📉
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $51.32 (-8.37%), +2.81% at $52.76 📉
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $23.28 (-5.67%) 📉

Crypto Treasury Companies

Strategy (MSTR): closed at $280.81 (-6.99%), +2.3% at $287.28 📉
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $22.53 (-4.17%) 📉
SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $13.44 (-6.28%), +2.16% at $13.73 📈
Upexi (UPXI): closed at $4.75 (-6.68%), +3.79% at $4.93 📈
Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.86 (-4.62%), +6.99% at $1.99 📈

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

Daily net flows: -$101.4 million 💸
Cumulative net flows: $61.84 billion 💰
Total BTC holdings ~1.35 million 🧾

Spot ETH ETFs:

Daily net flows: -$18.9 million 💸
Cumulative net flows: $14.59 billion 💰
Total ETH holdings ~6.78 million 🧾

2025-10-23 15:01