In a rather dramatic turn of events that could only be described as a cosmic joke, Bitcoin (BTC) has decided to breach a support trendline against gold (XAU) that has been as stable as a three-legged chair for over 12 years, on this fateful day of March 14. 🎭
According to the ever-optimistic analyst NorthStar, this breakdown could very well signal the end of Bitcoin’s 12-year bull run. Yes, you heard that right! If it stays under the gold trendline for even a week or—heaven forbid—a month, we might as well start planning the funeral. 🥳
So, is Bitcoin’s bull market over? Let’s embark on a whimsical journey to explore BTC’s correlation with gold, shall we? 🚀
Gold Hits New Record High as Bitcoin’s Uptrend Cools Off
As if the universe had a sense of humor, the BTC/XAU ratio breakdown occurred just as spot gold rates hit a new record high above $3,000 per ounce on March 14, after a delightful 12.80% rise year-to-date. Gold is clearly having a party, and Bitcoin seems to have forgotten the invitation. 🎉
In stark contrast, Bitcoin, often dubbed “digital gold” (because why not?), has plummeted by 11% so far in 2025. Talk about a plot twist! 📉
The performances of these two assets reflect the contrasting net flows into US-based spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking Bitcoin and gold. Spoiler alert: gold is winning! 🥇
As of March 14, US-based spot gold ETFs had collectively attracted over $6.48 billion YTD, according to the World Gold Council. Meanwhile, gold ETFs globally have seen a staggering $23.18 billion in inflows. Gold is basically the popular kid in school right now. 📚
On the flip side, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen nearly $1.46 billion in outflows YTD. Ouch! That’s gotta sting! 😬
The driving force behind this divergence? A delightful cocktail of growing macroeconomic uncertainty and risk-off sentiment, shaken (not stirred) by President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies. 🍸
New tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada have sent investors running towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold, while Bitcoin is left to ponder its life choices. 🤔
Meanwhile, central banks in the US, China, and the UK have been on a gold-buying spree, further boosting gold prices. It’s like a gold rush, but without the pickaxes and the mud! 🏞️
In contrast, Bitcoin is mirroring the broader risk-on market. As of March 14, its 52-week correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq Composite index was a rather cozy 0.76. 🛋️
Has Bitcoin Price Topped? Or Is It Just Playing Hide and Seek?
The current Bitcoin-to-gold breakdown aligns with historical patterns, particularly the March 2021–March 2022 fractal, which preceded the last bear market. It’s like déjà vu, but with more panic! 😱
At that time, the BTC/XAU ratio exhibited a bearish divergence, characterized by rising prices juxtaposed against a declining relative strength index (RSI). This pattern suggested that upward momentum
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2025-03-14 16:34