As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I have witnessed countless bull and bear cycles, from the dot-com bubble to the 2008 global financial crisis. Having closely observed Bitcoin’s meteoric rise since its inception, I find it intriguing to see predictions about its future price movement.
Questions have arisen around Bitcoin’s fair value after a popular economist predicted that the world’s first cryptocurrency may never fall below $60,000.
According to economist and trader Alex Krüger, posted on November 5th, it’s possible that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) might surpass the significant level of $60,000.
“50% probability of Bitcoin never trading below 60K again.”
On the day of the US election, an economist made a prediction that drew more focus towards Bitcoin and digital currencies. By Monday, November 4th, Bitcoin had reached its lowest point at around $66,815. However, it soon bounced back above $68,750 by 1:37 pm UTC on Nov. 5.
Analysts from some quarters anticipate that the unpredictability following the elections might trigger a surge in Bitcoin values, potentially reaching unprecedented peaks. Intriguingly, analysts at Bitfinex project a significant Bitcoin price increase to around $80,000 by the end of 2024, primarily due to the unique setup of the options market and the possibility of a Republican winning the presidency.
Bitcoin’s “floor price” crossed $40k: Adam Back
Based on certain measurements, it’s possible that the minimum price for Bitcoin could exceed $40,000. One such metric is the 200-week moving average, which is often employed to identify major market tendencies by filtering out short-term fluctuations in value.
On October 18th, as per Adam Back – co-founder and CEO of Blockstream, as well as the inventor of Hashcash – this significant benchmark was reached and surpassed the $40,000 threshold.
Back wrote in an Oct. 20 X post:
“The Bitcoin 200 week moving average, effectively the bitcoin floor “up only” price crossed $40k. You can view it as roughly the bitcoin floor price without the volatility, at least historically.”
Some believe that the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) of Bitcoin serves as a more accurate indicator for calculating its minimum market price, or “lowest absolute price point.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin’s CVDD stands at $26,520, TradingView data shows.
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2024-11-05 17:23