Prediction markets are now placing more hope on Satoshi Nakamoto finally making a move this year than on Jesus Christ making his grand return. Yes, you read that right. Back in July, traders gave Bitcoin’s mysterious creator a measly 3.7
Kalshi and Polymarket Bettors Putting Their Money on Satoshi Making a Move
Bitcoin’s elusive creator mined a small mountain of BTC, and according to data from Arkham Intelligence, that stash now sits at a jaw-dropping 1,096,358.30 bitcoin-currently valued at roughly $121 billion. That’s more than enough to make Nakamoto one of the wealthiest humans on the planet-if they’re even alive. 🙃
And no, these coins aren’t just hanging out in a single wallet, collecting digital dust. They’re scattered across a constellation of addresses, each one holding a piece of this treasure in old-school coinbase rewards. Unfortunately, Satoshi hasn’t done anything with these coins except maybe a few test transfers that were lost to the ether of time.
Right now, Polymarket bettors are pegging the odds of Nakamoto moving some of that stash at a modest 7

Kalshi’s bettors are also putting their chips on Nakamoto, but their wager takes a much longer view-betting on him moving coins by 2027. Right now, traders are giving that a 14

Over on Polymarket, there’s another wager about the U.S. government coming clean about aliens. Spoiler alert: it’s not looking great, with odds sitting at just 4
While these bets are fun and games, let’s be real for a second-Satoshi Nakamoto moving those coins is still highly unlikely. The wallets have remained untouched for over a decade, standing as silent monuments to Bitcoin’s humble beginnings. Despite all the speculation and noise from the prediction markets, the odds are still heavily leaning toward nothing happening. So, let’s keep that 15
For now, Nakamoto’s stash remains frozen in time-a digital relic of the beginning, and perhaps, the ultimate lesson in strategic restraint. Maybe it’s not the Second Coming, but it sure does have people talking! 🤷♂️
FAQ 🧭
- What are prediction markets saying about Satoshi Nakamoto?
Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi are betting on the odds of Bitcoin’s creator finally moving some coins after years of inactivity. - How much bitcoin does Satoshi Nakamoto own?
Arkham Intelligence estimates Satoshi’s stash at around 1,096,358 BTC, worth approximately $121 billion. 💰 - What are the odds of Satoshi moving coins in 2025?
Polymarket currently gives it around a 7 - Are these bets serious or just for fun?
Most analysts believe Satoshi’s coins will likely never move. But hey, it’s still fun to speculate, right? 😜
Read More
- Ashes of Creation Rogue Guide for Beginners
- Best Controller Settings for ARC Raiders
- Meet the cast of Mighty Nein: Every Critical Role character explained
- Tougen Anki Episode 24 Release Date, Time, Where to Watch
- Eldegarde, formerly Legacy: Steel & Sorcery, launches January 21, 2026
- Fishing Guide in Where Winds Meet
- Avatar 3 Popcorn Buckets Bring Banshees From Pandora to Life
- Donkey Kong Bananza Has Fans Convinced Mario Kart World DLC Is Coming
- Sony Sells Out of PS5 Slim Ahead of Price Hike
- Battlefield 6 Shares Explosive Look at Single Player in New Trailer, Captured on PS5 Pro
2025-10-21 18:14