Bitcoin’s Little Bounce: A Bear in Sheep’s Clothing? 🐻

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Ah, Bitcoin. That flickering candle in the digital darkness. It’s risen, you say? Like a particularly stubborn ghost refusing to accept its spectral fate. CryptoQuant, those diligent scribes of the blockchain, claim this “rally” – a generous term, mind you – doesn’t signify escape from the bearish embrace. It’s more like a polite cough before the inevitable chill sets in. 🥶

They mumble something about “improved demand.” Improved from what, exactly? From utter desolation? Still “weak”, they whisper, as if afraid to offend the volatile beast. It’s a bear market pretending to be a picnic, and we’re all invited to watch it devour our hopes and dreams. Such optimism! Honestly.

A Fleeting Illusion of Recovery

Since November 21st, 2025 – a date which will surely be etched in the annals of financial…well, something – Bitcoin has bounced a mere 20%. Twenty percent! A pittance, a rounding error in the grand scheme of things. Before this ephemeral ascent, it plummeted, naturally, confirming the bear’s reign. It flirts with the 365-day Moving Average, currently lounging at a smug $101,000. A boundary, they call it. A line in the sand, perpetually washed away by the tide of misfortune. Like trying to hold back the ocean with a teacup. ☕

History, those tiresome chroniclers of repetition, warn us. The 365-day MA has consistently proven to be an insurmountable obstacle for bulls, a velvet rope barring entry to paradise. 2022 offered a similar spectacle of false hope, and it seems 2026 will be no different. Predictable, isn’t it? One almost feels sorry for the optimists.

The Demand That Wasn’t

This flirtation with recovery coincides with, shall we say, marginally improved demand. Spot demand? Still shrinking, of course. Those U.S. spot indicators, the Coinbase Price Premium and those shiny new ETFs… they merely stopped the hemorrhage, momentarily. Like applying a Band-Aid to a gunshot wound. The Coinbase premium twitched, sputtered, and returned to the realm of negativity-again. A brief burst of false enthusiasm. How whimsical! 🙄

The ETF Enigma

And the ETFs? Oh, the ETFs…they haven’t exactly ignited a frenzy. They simply ceased their frantic selling-after offloading 54,000 BTC in November, a rather dramatic exodus. No “strong return” of US demand, no “sustained accumulation”, just a temporary pause in the panic. They’ve purchased a pathetic 3,800 BTC this year, compared to 3,600 last year. A statistical blip. A cosmic joke. 🤡

Apparently, Bitcoin spot demand has evaporated by 67,000 BTC in the last 30 days. Negative territory since November 28th, 2025. Oh, the drama! And now, the exchanges are seeing an influx of Bitcoin – a seven-day average of 39,000 BTC. A clear sign, those analysts warn, that more selling is on the horizon. Prepare for turbulence, dear reader. Prepare for the bear’s yawn.

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2026-01-18 16:30