What to know:
- Analysts are sharply divided; Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone warns of a potential “meltdown” to $10,000 if BTC fails to reclaim $75,000, while Fundstrat’s Tom Lee insists the market bottom is already behind us.
- While Bitcoin and Ether remain relatively flat, the altcoin market is showing signs of life with MANA and AERO rising 6%, though MANA’s gains appear driven by a 25% spike in leveraged open interest rather than spot buying.
- Traders are watching for a decisive break above $75,000; establishing support there is widely viewed as the necessary catalyst for a capital rotation into currently oversold altcoin sectors.
The cryptocurrency market is currently trading just below its recent high from early February, with Bitcoin around $71,200 and Ethereum (ETH) at $2,185. Despite some positive news from the recent US-Iran ceasefire, prices haven’t moved much, and experts disagree on what will happen next.
This week, Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone warned that Bitcoin needs to rise back above $75,000, or it could fall sharply to around $10,000. However, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee believes the worst is already over, stating that Bitcoin has likely hit its lowest point. It’s worth mentioning that Lee’s firm holds a significant $10.4 billion in Ethereum.
Bitcoin is slightly up, rising about 0.3% since midnight UTC. Ethereum’s price hasn’t changed much, but it did better than most cryptocurrencies yesterday. Although Bitcoin has seen a small increase, everyone is watching to see if this period of stable prices will lead to further gains, or if it’s just a temporary pause before prices fall.
Derivatives positioning
- Bitcoin’s futures open interest (OI) has increased to 726,000 BTC, a one-week high, bouncing sharply from 693,000 BTC over the weekend. The tally has increased by over 1% in the past 24 hours, a sign of continued capital inflows despite spot price’s stalled ascent.
- BTC’s 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) remains positive for the second straight day and perpetual funding rates hover just above zero. These datasets, coupled with OI increase, suggests a persistent bias for bullish plays.
- OI in ether, XRP and solana futures has also increased by 1% to 2%. However, CVD and funding rates for these tokens are slightly negative, which suggests growing demand for bearish bets.
- CVD readings for top meme coins like DOGE and SHIB remain negative – a signal some see as constructive for the broader market, as heavy bullish positioning in speculative tokens is often viewed as a sign of excess froth.
- Bitcoin and ether volatility indices continue to decline in a sign of market calm. 10x Research said the market is pricing just 2.5% swing in either direction on the back of Friday’s inflation data.
- On Deribit, BTC and ETH continue to show a mild bias for put options, which offer downside protection, although its much weaker than a week ago. Speaking of flows, the $80,000 bitcoin call has seen the biggest increase in number of open positions in the past 24 hours followed by the $82,000 call.
Token talk
- The altcoin market continued to impress on Thursday with the likes of MANA and AERO rising by 6% apiece, while decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens MORPHO and PENDLE rose by 3.7% and 2.7% respectively since midnight UTC.
- It’s worth noting that MANA’s move comes alongside a 25% increase in open interest, suggesting the move was backed by leverage as opposed to spot buying.
- The CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS) and CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Select Capped Index (SCPXC) were the best performing benchmarks on Thursday, posting gains between 0.4% and 0.5% while the broader CoinDesk 100 (CD100) is unchanged.
- Traders will be keeping a close on on whether bitcoin can break above $75,000 and establish a level of support, which would likely lead to a period of capital rotation into altcoins, many of which are still oversold following a selloff in February and subsequent period of consolidation.
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2026-04-09 13:30