Ah, Bitcoin (BTC), that fickle friend! It has danced a merry jig of 4.40% after establishing a new range at $93,321 on the 18th of February. Yet, like a tragic hero, it continues to descend in a high-time frame (HTF) chart, trapped in a descending channel pattern. 🎭
With the lofty heights of $102,000 and the gloomy depths of $91,000, Bitcoin’s market structure resembles a sloth on a lazy Sunday. This sluggishness has, alas, dulled its onchain and institutional demand. 🦥
Spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows drop
Our dear Julio Moreno, the sage of CryptoQuant, has proclaimed in an X post that the appetite for spot Bitcoin ETFs has been halved in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year. The current net inflow is a mere 41,000 BTC, a far cry from the 100,000 BTC of 2024. Oh, how the mighty have fallen! 📉
Yet, when we measure this in dollars, the difference is but a trifle, with ETF inflows totaling approximately $4.8 billion in 2024 compared to $4.3 billion in 2025. A mere pittance! 💸
From the lofty towers of institutional trading, Vetle Lunde, the oracle of K33 research, has noted that the 1-month basis of CME Bitcoin futures has plummeted to lows not seen since September 2023, just before the bull market began. How poetic! 📉
The 1-month basis, that fickle measure of the percentage difference between the front-month futures price and Bitcoin’s spot price, reveals whether futures are trading at a premium (contango) or a discount (backwardation). A positive basis indicates a strong demand for long exposure, while a negative one highlights bearish sentiments. 🐻
While the current 1-month basis is positive, Lunde warns of “risk-averse” conditions. He adds,
“Trading volumes are at pre-election levels, there are no material ETF flows, and volatility is gone.”
Interestingly, Bitcoin CME’s annualized basis has also dropped to a 4-month low, a potential bullish reversal signal. Since March 2024, whenever the annualized basis dipped to the 6% range, Bitcoin has shown a higher time frame (HTF) bottom within two weeks. On the 19th of February, the annualized basis was 6.22%, setting the stage for a thrilling plot twist! 🎬
Bitcoin price “squeezing tighter” under $98K
Low volatility and sideways price action have become Bitcoin’s signature dish this month, as it struggles to assert a directional bias. While the markets appear bearish, BTC has yet to close a daily candle under $92,000 since the 19th of November. Quite the resilient little rascal! 🦸♂️
Jackis, a crypto trader, has observed that Bitcoin’s price over the past 15 days has been as tightly compressed as a well-packed suitcase in August 2023. With the overall range between $106,000 and $91,500, he believes it is essential for our crypto friend to reveal its intentions before any investment moves are made. 🎒
Jelle, a fellow investor, echoes this sentiment, noting BTC’s struggle to break above $97,000. As the price inches closer to the range, he highlights that the squeeze is getting “tighter and tighter,” and
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2025-02-20 22:22