Key takeaways:
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Since 2010, whenever doom and gloom descended—much like an overcooked cabbage—Bitcoin dusted itself off and jumped more than 64.6%, presenting speculators with an opportunity finer than last year’s borsch. Will the latest Middle Eastern kerfuffle serve up another feast?
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Even as Bitcoin prances about near its all-time highs, the so-called Puell Multiple lounges seductively in the “discount zone,” a clear sign that either institutions are accumulating, or someone’s left the lemonade spiked. The market is undervalued—or so say the wise men in suits.
One fateful Friday, like a merchant dropping his last pierogi in a puddle, the price of Bitcoin (as tracked by Binance)—sashayed downwards to $102,650 amid Israel’s airstrikes on Iran. Oil smirked and inflated by 5%, meanwhile, a group of analysts pored over their tea leaves (and Excel spreadsheets) to claim that, yes, dear reader, you could be gazing at a classic “buy the dip” moment. After all, if global tension can’t make you rich, what’s the point of having nerves?
André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe and presumably a fashionable wearer of overcoats, took to X (the artist formerly known as Twitter) to point out that, across the past 20 major geopolitical “interesting episodes,” Bitcoin has, on average, swaggered upwards by 64.6% within just 50 days. Median gain: a respectably plump 17.3%. Not bad for a digital coin invented by a shadow with a fancy name.
See this chart? (And if you don’t, tilt your head and squint.) Here are Bitcoin’s escapades in the geopolitical soap opera. The mean performance hovers with all the stability of a pigeon on a rooftop until—bam!—an event, and up it goes, peaking 30-40 days later, as if trying to make grandma proud. Markets love drama, who knew?
Even Adam Back, of Blockstream CEO renown and champion beard-grower, tossed his hat into the ring, waving charts to mock gold-loving Peter Schiff. His data? Bitcoin cheerfully outpaces both gold and the S&P 500 after major kerfuffles—especially during the U.S.–Iran escalation in January 2020, when it leapt by 20%. Gold simply glared sullenly and refused to participate. 🪙🥇
And lest you believe all this is mere modern sorcery, an October 2020 study (which must have been written on the back of at least three napkins) introduced the “Granger causality test”—which, in classic chicken-or-egg arguments, showed that Bitcoin and global crises influence each other. Sometimes Bitcoin runs toward trouble; sometimes trouble chases Bitcoin around the table. Typical.
Puell Multiple: The Subtle Art of Looking Discounted
Over at CryptoQuant, the wise men assembled again: “Bitcoin is mighty buyable!” they declared. Apparently, Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple—a number tracking miners’ daily spoils versus their yearly haul—has slouched below 1.40. This, despite prices blasting past $108,000. The April 2024 halving (an event as mysterious as the mayor’s missing hat) chopped rewards and left supply tight. Holders rejoice, miners frown, and institutions lurk in the shadows with full pockets.
When the Puell Multiple dips below 1.0, it means smart money is quietly collecting coins, possibly while everyone else is distracted by whatever the financial equivalent of a circus bear might be. So, the rally could be just the overture—a giggle before the full belly laugh.
Therefore, the current scenario represents a potential window of opportunity. The combination of a historically high price and still conservative fundamentals reinforces that the upward cycle may only be half over.
Meanwhile, the good citizens at Glassnode are measuring cost basis to decimal perfection: 1-week at $106,200, 1-month at $105,200, and so on. Most folks are sitting pretty (in profit), so don’t expect a stampede to sell—at least until something inexplicable happens. Uncertainty is as reliable as spring mud.
Stitch these metrics together—discounted Puell Multiple, solid cost basis, and a market that seems to enjoy being undervalued—and what do you get? Perhaps a recovery strong enough to make a bureaucrat weep. For the speculative soul with nerves of steel… opportunity beckons! 🚀💸
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2025-06-13 22:45