Bitcoin’s Roller Coaster Ride: Standard Chartered Cuts Predictions – Is This the End?

by

Hold onto your hats, folks! The big, bad banking giant, Standard Chartered, has gone and done it – they’ve slashed their Bitcoin prediction for 2025 in half! Yes, you read that right. The mystical, magical world of Bitcoin is not quite the money-making machine it once seemed.

So, what happened? Well, Bitcoin’s been stumbling lately, like a clumsy giant trying to walk on a tightrope. After a surprising performance in late 2024, it seems the magic is running out.

Standard Chartered’s Bitcoin prediction

The mighty bank has now revised its once golden $200,000 Bitcoin prediction down to a rather modest $100,000 by the close of 2025. That’s a steep drop! And the long-term forecast of $500,000? Well, let’s just say that’s been shoved into 2030. So much for hitting the moon anytime soon!

Apparently, analysts are getting a little more cautious, peering at Bitcoin’s future like a wise owl watching the stock market. And with Bitcoin floating around $90,000, it’s stuck in a tight trading range, as if it can’t make up its mind whether it’s going to party or take a nap.

Institutional buying fails to meet high expectations

So, what’s causing this dramatic shift in forecast? According to Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s resident Bitcoin guru, it’s all about reassessing where the money is going to come from.

Let’s break it down:

  • Corporate treasury exhaustion: Oh, the good ol’ days when corporations were scooping up Bitcoin like they were buying candy. That frenzy has slowed down faster than a sloth on a lazy afternoon. These treasuries are no longer gobbling up Bitcoin like there’s no tomorrow, and that’s a big deal.
  • ETF inflows are more of a trickle than a flood: Remember those shiny new Bitcoin ETFs everyone was so excited about? Yeah, turns out they didn’t quite live up to the hype. Instead of a torrent of institutional buyers, we’re seeing more of a little stream. Not the flood they promised.

These two factors combined mean Bitcoin isn’t riding the high waves of institutional support anymore. It’s like a bike with a flat tire – not going anywhere fast.

What are datasets telling us?

If you thought the charts were looking bad, wait until you see the data. Quarterly Bitcoin ETF inflows are now hovering around 50,000 coins. That’s practically a ghost town compared to the nearly 450,000 BTC per quarter that was being gobbled up in 2024.

At this rate, Kendrick predicts that Bitcoin’s future price growth will rely almost entirely on ETF-related buying. That’s a lot of pressure on a single source of demand!

And let’s not forget the Federal Reserve’s little dance with interest rates, which might also stir things up in unexpected ways. Talk about a recipe for confusion!

Rejecting the traditional halving cycle

Now, let’s throw another curveball. Standard Chartered is waving goodbye to the age-old “halving cycle” that Bitcoin has followed like a well-behaved puppy. The once-reliable model of Bitcoin’s price peaking after each halving has been thrown out the window.

“With the advent of ETF buying, we think the BTC halving cycle is no longer a relevant price driver. The logic in previous cycles – i.e., prices would peak about 18 months after each halving and decline thereafter – is no longer valid, in our view.”

It’s official – the halving cycle is no longer the Bitcoin Bible.

“However, it will take a break of the current all-time high (USD 126,000 on 6 October 2025) to prove that; we expect this to happen in H1-2026.”

Oh, and let’s not forget that Bitcoin’s boom-and-bust cycles may just be a thing of the past. No more wintery crypto nights – at least, that’s what Kendrick says. But you know how it goes – never say never!

Final thoughts

  • Standard Chartered now believes ETF inflows, not corporate treasuries, will fuel Bitcoin’s next big leap. How convenient!
  • Despite their dramatic revision, they’re still waving the flag against the traditional halving-cycle model. Because why not?

Read More

2025-12-11 08:20