In the grand theater of finance, where the curtain rises and falls with the whims of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Bitcoin (BTC) found itself in a curious dance. On January 30, the cryptocurrency pirouetted to a dizzying height of $106,500, as if it had just discovered a hidden stash of gold coins in a forgotten attic. A breakout from a descending trendline? Oh, how delightful! The charts seemed to whisper promises of further ascents, as if the very heavens had opened up to bless the digital gold.
Yet, let us not forget the significance of a daily close above $105,000, a feat achieved only twice since the fateful day of December 8, 2024, when Bitcoin first breached the six-figure threshold. A rare gem indeed!
Bitcoin Futures: A Sudden Surge of $1.2 Billion
In the aftermath of the FOMC meeting, the Bitcoin futures market sprang to life, adding a staggering $1.2 billion in open interest within a mere 24 hours. An 8% increase, reaching a high of $65 billion on January 30—what a spectacle! The funding rates danced in tandem with this newfound interest, as if they were partners in a grand waltz, with long positions opening like flowers in spring.
But lo and behold! Amidst this bullish fervor, a curious anomaly emerged: retail investor activity, once a vibrant chorus, had plummeted by 48% since November 2024. Glassnode’s data revealed a stark reality—wallets holding less than 0.1 BTC were now as quiet as a library on a Sunday afternoon.
In November 2024, the spending volume had reached a crescendo of over $20.6 million per hour, but by January 30, it had dwindled to a mere $10.7 million. A tragic decline, indeed!
Quinten Francois, a sage of the crypto realm, noted with a hint of irony that despite Bitcoin’s lofty perch above $100,000, retail interest had sunk to a three-year low. How the mighty have fallen!
“This Time is Different”
Ah, the age-old refrain of “this time is different” echoes through the halls of financial history. One reason for the retreat of retail investors lies in the concept of “unit bias.” This psychological quirk suggests that individuals prefer to own a complete unit, regardless of its price. And with Bitcoin now viewed as “too expensive,” many have turned their gaze elsewhere.
Sunny Po, a mysterious figure in the Bitcoin community, aptly captured the essence of this mindset:
“Unit bias is a core foundational framework of the normie mind. ‘Cheaper better.’”
In 2024, the spotlight shifted to XRP, its low price igniting wild predictions of “$XRP to $1,000” or “$XRP to $10,000.” Such fanciful claims, while ignoring the realities of market cap, drew in new investors like moths to a flame.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s ascent has been largely orchestrated by institutional players and the rise of spot BTC ETFs. While retail interest waned since November 2024, CoinGlass reported a remarkable increase in the total market cap of BTC ETFs, soaring from $70 billion on November 5 to $125 billion on January 30—a staggering 78% rise!
It seems that new investors are opting for the safety of BTC ETFs, avoiding the burdens of self-custody. Thus, while retail investors may still be lurking in the shadows, they are not generating new blockchain addresses, a telltale sign of their presence.
According to Glassnode, the
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2025-01-30 23:29