- BTC’s 26% tumble could be a mere hiccup or the prelude to a full-blown melodrama. 🎭
- Glassnode, ever the optimist, suggests a cozy landing above $70K. 🛬
Bitcoin’s [BTC] 26% nosedive in 2025 might just be the opening act of a grander tragedy, should the descent continue.
Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s Head of Research, noted that the 2025 plunge was currently on par with the August 2024 fiasco. 🎢
After flirting with $109K in January, BTC retreated to a modest $74K this week, thanks to the ever-reliable macro uncertainty — a 30% correction, no less. It has since clawed back to $79K. Last year, it plummeted from $73K to $49K, a 33% decline. 📉
But when compared to historical drawdowns, is BTC merely catching its breath, or is the storm still brewing? 🌪️
BTC — A Phoenix Rising or a Sinking Ship? 🚢
Past BTC drawdowns, particularly during the bear market phase, were far more dramatic than the current 36%-30% decline. In 2012, 2025, and 2019, for instance, BTC plummeted over 80% and lingered in the doldrums for 6–12 months after hitting a price peak. 📉
Currently, BTC has shed about 30% over the past 3 months. If history is any guide, this might just be the opening salvo of a larger correction spanning the next 3-9 months. 🕰️
However, an 80% drop (to $21K) seems improbable, given that the key bull market support, the 200-weekly Moving Average, has risen to $45K. 🐂
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Indeed, other astute investors, like Philip Swift and Stockmoney Lizards, were confidently bidding at these levels. 🤑
However, Moreno cautioned that the bottom wasn’t fully marked, as several bullish indicators were yet to show improvement for BTC. 🚩
In conclusion, the current 30% drawdown pales in comparison to the past cycle’s bear phases, which averaged an 80% price drop. Hence, the current pullback might be a mid-bull correction before another leg up. 🏃♂️
Note, however, that it could also be the start of a larger correction if bullish conditions don’t improve. 🚨
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2025-04-08 14:18