Oh, the drama of Bitcoin! Those who bought when it hit a $109,000 all-time peak in January are now panic-selling as the cryptocurrency declines, according to onchain analytics firm Glassnode. They’re not ruling out that Bitcoin could slide to $70,000.
In their March 11 markets report, Glassnode said that a recent sell-off by top buyers has driven “intense loss realization and a moderate capitulation event.”
Short-term holders fled as Bitcoin dropped from peak
The surge in buyers paying higher prices for Bitcoin (BTC) in recent months is reflected in the short-term holder realized price — the average purchase price for those holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days.
In October, the short-term realized price was $62,000. At the time of publication, it’s $91,362 — up about 47% in five months, according to Bitbo data.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading at $81,930 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap. This leaves the average short-term holder with an unrealized loss of roughly 10.6%.
Glassnode said that short-term holders’ realized price shows it is apparent that “market momentum and capital flows have turned negative, signaling a decline in demand strength.”
“Investor uncertainty is affecting sentiment and confidence,” it added.
Glassnode said that short-term holders are “deeply underwater” between $71,300 and $91,900 and warns that Bitcoin could bottom out as low as $70,000 if selling persists.
“The probability of forming a temporary floor in this zone is meaningful, at least in the near term,” Glassnode said.
Market research firm 10x Research labeled it a “textbook correction” in a March 10 note, adding that with Bitcoin’s dip below $80,000, “approximately 70% of all selling came from investors who bought within the last three months.”
On the same day, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said that Bitcoin may retest the $78,000 price level and, if that fails, may head to $75,000 next.
Glassnode explained that a similar sell-off Bitcoin pattern was seen in August when Bitcoin fell from $68,000 to around $49,000 amid fears of a recession, poor employment data in the United States, and sluggish growth among leading tech stocks.
However, Bitcoin has spiked 7.5% over the past 24 hours as the US market steadied on March 11 after US President Donald Trump refused to rule out that a recession was on the cards.
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2025-03-12 09:18