- Ah, the BTC relief bounce, a delightful dalliance with the Fed’s tender embrace of dovish QT.
- Yet, some technical price indicators remained stubbornly bearish, like a cat refusing to leave a sunbeam.
On the fateful 19th of March, Bitcoin [BTC] pirouetted back to $85K, a feat attributed to the Fed’s leisurely waltz away from quantitative tightening (QT).
According to the crypto oracle, QCP Capital, this dovish pirouette was interpreted as an ‘indirect interest rate cut’—a term that sounds like a bad magic trick.
In their daily market review, QCP Capital proclaimed,
“Last night’s FOMC meeting delivered the catalyst markets had been waiting for, pushing $BTC past $85K in a sharp rally. The driver? The Fed scaling back QT starting in April. Markets see this as an indirect rate cut.”
Jamie Coutts, the chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, chimed in, suggesting that the QT taper would sprinkle some liquidity fairy dust on the US dollar.
“Treasury volatility has backed right off and is now mirroring the decline in DXY from earlier this month. This is all extremely liquidity-positive,” he mused, perhaps while sipping a latte.
What’s next for Bitcoin?
The QT dovish tilt was as surprising as a cat video going viral; some analysts had already donned their crystal balls. Now, the spotlight shifted to BTC’s next act and whether this relief bounce could sustain itself like a toddler on a sugar high.
Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX maestro, suggested that BTC might have found its bottom at $77K after the Fed’s move. However, he warned of potential stock market woes lurking like a bad smell.
“The next thing we need to get bulled up for real is either SLR exemption and or a restart of QE. Was $BTC $77k the bottom? Probably. But stocks probably have more pain left to fully convert Powell to team Trump, so stay nimble and cashed up.”
From a price analysis perspective, BTC reclaimed key moving averages on the lower timeframes, reinforcing a bullish shift—like a phoenix rising from the ashes, or perhaps just a well-timed meme.
However, the pseudonymous crypto trader, Income Sharks, cautioned that true conviction would only come if OBV (On Balance Volume) could clear its overhead resistance, a task akin to herding cats.
“Now, to see what $BTC does at OBV resistance and diagonal resistance. Would be a clear sign of strength to see a follow-through here.”
BTC’s recovery would be capped if OBV weakened after rejection at the resistance level. In simpler terms, it would mean weak volume to push BTC forward—like trying to run a marathon with a pebble in your shoe.
Conversely, BTC’s recovery would be boosted if volume picked up at current levels, a scenario that would make bulls dance with glee.
QCP Capital added that Options market sentiment had turned positive, but sustained bullish skew depended on the next few days of trading—like waiting for a punchline that may or may not land.
“Options markets reflect the shift in sentiment. Call skew is back, reversing from earlier bearish positioning. The key test now is tonight’s US open. Will the rally sustain, or will markets reassess the risks?”
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2025-03-20 22:21