Oh, the audacity of it all! The United States’ spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen a rather dazzling $4.94 billion in inflows over January, a figure so grand that it could very well portend an influx of over $50 billion this year, according to the ever-astute Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s investment chief.
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View Urgent Forecast“So far, so good: Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $4.94 billion in January, which annualizes to ~$59 billion,” Hougan mused in a Feb. 1 X post, as if he were commenting on the weather rather than the financial climate. “For context: In all of 2024, they brought in $35.2 billion.”
He graciously acknowledged the “significant month-to-month volatility in flows” but remained steadfast in his prediction that Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs would “end the year north of $50b.”
In December, Hougan and Bitwise’s head of research, Ryan Rasmussen, had the audacity to predict that Bitcoin ETF inflows in 2025 would surpass those of 2024. The funds, they claimed, ended 2024 with a mere $33.6 billion in inflows, far exceeding the paltry $15 billion that analysts had anticipated at their launch in January 2024.
BlackRock, Fidelity: The New Aristocrats of Bitcoin ETFs
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) has emerged as the clear favorite, amassing a staggering $3.2 billion in net inflows over January. Not to be outdone, the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) took in a respectable $1.3 billion, according to the latest data from Farside Investors.
Bitwise’s own fund, the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB), managed to secure the fifth largest net inflow of the 11 ETFs, pulling in a modest $125 million, trailing behind the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF (BTC), which attracted around $398.5 million.
In their December report, Hougan and Rasmussen foresaw 2025 as the year of even larger Bitcoin ETF inflows, as institutional investors, ever so dramatically, would seek to “double down” and increase their allocation to these funds.
The duo noted, with a touch of historical flair, that an ETF’s first year is “typically the slowest,” pointing to the gold ETFs, which saw $2.6 billion in flows during their inaugural year in 2004, only to more than double to $5.5 billion in 2005.
Hougan and Rasmussen also hinted at a seismic shift, suggesting that the world’s largest wirehouses, who have thus far been denied access to Bitcoin ETFs, would soon “unleash their army of wealth managers,” potentially exposing the funds to trillions of dollars. 🤑
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2025-02-03 05:05