Bitwise’s PredictionShares: Gambling on Elections, Not Just Tea and Crumpets!

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My dear, if you thought investing was merely a matter of spreadsheets and dividends, prepare to be scandalized. Bitwise Asset Management has filed to launch a series of Exchange-Traded Funds-yes, those delightful financial instruments-tied to political prediction markets. How droll! One might almost think they’ve turned the stock exchange into a parlour game, albeit with higher stakes and fewer teacups.

  • Bitwise, ever the innovator, has proposed ETFs tracking U.S. election outcomes. Because nothing says “stability” like betting on whether Republicans or Democrats will win the 2028 presidency. Charming.
  • Investors may now wager from the comfort of their brokerage accounts, as if the stock market were a gentleman’s club and politics a game of chance. How very modern.
  • Regulators, bless their cautious hearts, are still deliberating whether these contraptions qualify as securities or merely elaborate riddles. One suspects they’ll settle on “both” when the ink is dry.

The filing, disclosed by the ever-observant Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart (who, I daresay, tweets with the precision of a Shakespearean sonnet), reveals these funds will operate under the brand “PredictionShares.” A name so delightfully meta it could only have been coined by someone who’s never actually seen a share price behave itself.

As per the preliminary prospectus dated Feb. 17, the offering remains incomplete. Naturally. Nothing says “confidence” like informing investors the securities cannot be sold until a registration statement becomes effective. How thrilling!

Election-Focused Contracts: The Core of This Entirely Sensible Venture

The filings outline ETFs tracking U.S. political outcomes-because nothing focuses the mind like a £5 bet on the House of Representatives. Separate funds will determine whether Democrats or Republicans win the 2028 presidential election, and others will speculate on the 2026 midterms. One wonders if they’ll also offer a fund for predicting the Queen’s next book club pick.

NEW: @BitwiseInvest filing for prediction market backed ETFs under brand name PredictionShares.

– James Seyffart (@JSeyff) February 17, 2026

Rather than investing in companies connected to prediction markets, these funds will hold event-based contracts from regulated venues. A clever dodge, if you ask me. Why invest in companies when you can invest in the very chaos of democracy itself?

Bitwise assures us PredictionShares will serve as a “dedicated platform” for clients seeking regulated exposure to prediction markets. One imagines this platform resembles a high-stakes bridge game hosted by a man in a waistcoat who keeps muttering, “But surely the market must stabilize by Thursday!”

Approval remains pending, and the SEC-those fickle-minded gatekeepers of finance-has yet to bless the venture. One suspects they’re consulting their crystal balls as we speak.

Growing Competition and Market Interest

Bitwise’s CIO, Matt Hougan, claims prediction markets are “expanding in both size and relevance.” A bold assertion, considering the only thing expanding is the number of people who now believe they can predict the future. Client demand, he adds, was pivotal. Naturally. Who doesn’t want to gamble on the fate of a nation while sipping their morning coffee?

Other firms, ever the trend-followers, have filed similar proposals. Roundhill Investments and GraniteShares are now in the fray, all of them jostling for regulatory approval like children vying for the last biscuit at a tea party. None have succeeded thus far, but they persist with the tenacity of a British raincloud.

Platforms like Polymarket have reported “heavy trading volume” during political events. One imagines this is akin to watching a Victorian parlor game where everyone bets on whether the butler did it, except the butler is also playing the game.

Supporters argue these markets reflect public opinion faster than traditional polls. A dubious claim, but one I shall accept on faith. Critics, like Vitalik Buterin (who clearly hasn’t been invited to this particular tea party), warn they’re “extremely risky” and behave like “speculative bets.” A sentiment I wholeheartedly endorse. After all, nothing says “sound investment” like a financial instrument that might lose 90% of its value if your candidate loses an election.

Regulators, ever the cautious sorts, are examining how these products align with derivatives and securities laws. One suspects they’ll eventually declare them illegal, retroactive to the moment they were conceived. But by then, it’ll be too late for the investors who’ve already lost their shirts (and possibly their pensions).

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2026-02-18 08:16