The Fed’s Ode to Kalshi: A New Oracle in the Desert of Certainty

The rise of prediction markets-a phenomenon that smells faintly of gambling but is dressed in the finery of financial innovation-has begun to unsettle the old guard of economic forecasting. The Fed’s paper, titled with the gravitas of a Soviet-era decree, “Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets,” suggests that this platform’s ability to predict inflation and interest rates is not just valid but, dare we say, superior to traditional methods. One wonders if the Fed’s economists have finally abandoned their crystal balls for spreadsheets.


