As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of experience in politics and technology, I have witnessed many transformative moments that have reshaped the landscape of both fields. The recent surge of cryptocurrency-focused events, such as Permissionless III and Ripple Swell, has left me particularly intrigued by the evolving role of digital assets in American politics.
As the U.S. elections approach within a month, where citizens will elect representatives for the House, Senate, and Presidency, it appears that certain cryptocurrency occurrences are centered around regulatory issues and politics.
At Permissionless III in Salt Lake City, Utah, and Ripple Swell in Miami, Florida, during October, CryptoMoon observed that several discussions featured insights from top-tier business leaders regarding their forecasts about the November election between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump for the U.S. presidency, and how the results might impact the industry over the next five years, specifically in 2025.
2024 saw an unprecedented integration of digital assets like stablecoins and Bitcoin (BTC) into the political discourse of the United States, with many topics touching on regulation or mining. This marked a significant shift that positioned digital assets as a mainstream concern in US politics in a manner unseen before.
In a conversation with CryptoMoon during the Swell event on October 16, Ripple’s Head of US Public Policy, Lauren Belive, stated that each discussion revolved around regulations.
“We’ve seen a much broader swath now of policymakers really interested in the nuances of this technology.”
2024 saw significant advancements in the crypto sector compared to both the 2022 US midterm elections and the 2020 presidential elections. During his presidency from 2017 to 2021, former President Trump labeled Bitcoin as a currency based on “nothing” and even termed it a “fraud.” However, after leaving office, he continued to criticize the digital currency. Interestingly, both major party candidates have expressed their intent to back the crypto industry if elected.
Jason Allegrante, the head of legal and compliance at Fireblocks, expressed his viewpoint that there’s a growing discontent and the feeling that technology should not be politicized – however, it has indeed turned into a political matter in the U.S. He believes this is why people are becoming increasingly vocal about the potential consequences of the upcoming election.
Crypto wins regardless of the outcome?
There’s growing interest among lawmakers and policy makers in discussing digital assets, which is a positive shift for those in the industry who have traditionally worried about regulation. This increase can be seen even at events specifically centered around cryptocurrencies.
At the Bitcoin 2024 gathering held in Nashville, Tennessee, Trump delivered a significant address. Additionally, various presidential aspirants and legislators participated in the North American Blockchain Summit of 2023. This event is scheduled to continue after the US Election on November 5th.
Starting from 2025, we will initiate our journey with the most educated Congress we’ve ever had. This is due to the high number of first-time candidates who are joining us, bringing their views and knowledge about cryptocurrency. – Kristin Smith at a Permissionless panel on Oct. 9.
Coinbase chief policy officer Faryar Shirzad added at a different panel on Oct. 11:
“Regardless of what happens in the elections, we will have a very significantly advanced debate around the crypto issues and a very large cohort of members of the House and the Senate […] who will now come in with brand new pro-crypto voices.”
As a researcher, I am referring to Polymarket’s prediction platform, which, at the time of my study, indicated a 60% probability that Donald Trump would prevail in the U.S. presidential election against Vice President Kamala Harris.
In a court victory, the Kalshi marketplace commenced accepting wagers on U.S. elections, setting the probability of Republicans gaining control of the House, Senate, and Presidency at approximately 42%, as reported at the time of publishing.
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2024-10-19 00:58