Crypto Investors Are Losing Sleep Over This One Boring Data Point (Again)

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The PCE inflation index report is dropping tomorrow, which means crypto investors everywhere are adopting their special “watching paint dry but could this paint make me rich?” faces. You see, the Personal Consumption Expenditures data is the sort of thing the Federal Reserve obsesses over while clutching its monetary policy nightgown. Historically, every time the Fed sniffs a whiff of inflation, the cryptocurrency market either faints, throws a party, or, on special occasions, does both simultaneously. 🎉🤕

This time around, the March figures are expected to hit financial markets with all the subtlety of a librarian sneezing during an auction. Burnt-out speculators are hoping for interest rate hints, which could mean either actual liquidity or just more headlines with the words “pivot,” “hawkish,” and “Bitcoin” strung together like avant-garde poetry.

Projected PCE Inflation for March: The Numbers (Bring Coffee)

Analysts, who, if we’re honest, basically read chicken entrails with spreadsheets, are saying March’s core PCE inflation will be 2.6%. This counts as “cooling off.” Of course, February was 2.8%, January was 2.7%, and in December the world ended, but only for people who bet the farm on meme coins. The headline PCE (which includes all the things you actually buy, like food and gas) is forecast at 2.2%. Evolution of the numbers: a gentle slide, not a dramatic nosedive.

In plain Discworldian: inflation’s hobbling slowly toward the Fed’s holy grail of 2%—not quite there, still politely ignoring eye contact, but certainly in the same pub. All this tiptoeing follows months of inflation reports that have confused Federal Reserve wizards more than a new vending machine. 🧙‍♂️💸

PCE is the Fed’s favorite inflation pet, mostly because it doesn’t misbehave like the unruly CPI. The core PCE is special: it ignores those troublesome food and energy prices, because who needs food or fuel when pondering economic destiny?

Crypto Market: Hoping for Rain (But Not a Flood)

If tomorrow’s PCE reads 2.6% core and 2.2% headline, the cryptoverse could do its happy dance. Lower numbers increase the likelihood that Jerome Powell, high priest of the Fed, will consider loosening the monetary policy screws. Translation: potential interest rate cuts by year-end, or at least new ways to say “maybe” in central banker-ese.

Lower rates are music to every risk asset’s ears, crypto loudest of all, partly because normal investments seem even duller when they pay peanuts. When bonds and old-school savings accounts start to look like your grandad’s sock drawer, people set their sights on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and whichever coin just got a dog on its logo. 🐕⛓️

And if someone like Robert Kiyosaki (yes, him again) is prophesying a $200k price for Bitcoin, someone else is feverishly reloading charts, hoping to see it. Should PCE come in lower than predicted, cue every armchair analyst claiming prescience on Twitter and every crypto degenerate wondering if their Lambo dreams just got a little closer. Will Meade agrees, and as he tweeted (in case you missed the other ten thousand hot takes):

A cooler than expected PCE (Fed’s favorite inflation gauge) tomorrow would likely cause a huge pop in stocks, especially after today JOLTS

— Will Meade (@thechartdr) April 29, 2025

On the flip side, if inflation turns out spicier than a dwarfish curry (and higher than 2.6%), expect cryptocurrency prices to cool down. Possibly whimper. Probably not apologize.

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2025-04-29 22:52