Crypto market ‘underestimates the long-term impact’ of Bitcoin halving: Bitwise

Bitwise Asset Management points out that while the Bitcoin (BTC) halving is imminent, scheduled for April 20th, historical data shows that the price response following this significant event has often fallen short of expectations.

In a blog post on April 16th, Bitwise mentioned that the price of Bitcoin had decreased during the month following the last three halving events. However, within a year after each halving, Bitcoin’s price experienced a minimum increase of over 100%.

In the month after the 2012 halving, Bitcoin gained 9% — but over the next year it surged 8,839%.

In the past, including in 2016, Bitcoin experienced a predictable trend: Its price dropped by around 10% in the month following the halving event. However, this downturn was followed by significant growth – Bitcoin soared to $20,000 in late 2017, representing a gain of approximately 285%. A similar pattern emerged in 2020: The price increased slightly (around 6%) in the month after the halving. Later, Bitcoin experienced an impressive surge, rising by over 548% within the year.

Crypto market ‘underestimates the long-term impact’ of Bitcoin halving: Bitwise

“Although there isn’t much data available, the trend that emerges from it is intriguing according to Bitwise. Short-term market prices reflect the effect of the halving, while long-term implications are not fully recognized.”

In simple terms, this market condition marks the first instance where Bitcoin reached its maximum price prior to undergoing a halving event.

The cryptocurrency hit its current $73,679 peak on March 13, its since sunk 16% to around $64,400.

In simple terms, industry leaders share similar concerns for the near future. For instance, Markus Thielen, the head of research at 10x Research, forecasted on April 13 that miners might sell off assets worth around $5 billion following the halving event, which could potentially negatively impact market prices.

In the meantime, Fred Thiel, Marathon’s CEO, stated that the price increase following the Bitcoin halving had already been accounted for in their expectations, causing an earlier surge in prices post-halving.

On April 16, the financial expert “Rekt Capital” shared on platform X a table displaying various degrees of price decline experienced in the market since the end of the 2022 bear market.

Five major market downturns occurred, with each one being between 18% and 23% in magnitude. The markets have since decreased by 16%, indicating the possibility of more adjustments ahead.

Crypto market ‘underestimates the long-term impact’ of Bitcoin halving: Bitwise

At the same time, another analyst, referred to as “Cold Blooded Shiller,” pointed out that a 30% correction for Bitcoin wasn’t unusual. This implies that the price of Bitcoin might drop down to approximately $51,000.

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2024-04-17 09:03