CryptoQuant Analyst Drops Truth Bomb: MSTR Stock a Steal at 78% Discount

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Ah, the world of high finance, where numbers never lie… or do they? Carmelo Alemán, a humble analyst from CryptoQuant, has just thrown a wrench in the machinery of Strategy’s (MSTR) stock evaluation. According to his rather bold claims, the market has been taking MSTR’s stock for a ride, undervaluing it by a staggering 78%. How? Well, Alemán points to the company’s hefty 649,870 BTC stash, which apparently should be worth far more than what the stock is currently trading at. Talk about a discount! 🚀

What’s his evidence? It’s all in the glorious world of on-chain metrics and CryptoQuant’s MSTR “price bands” – a sort of oracle for stock valuation, if you will. Alemán asserts that MSTR is currently deep in its historical undervaluation zone. Basically, it’s like buying a luxury yacht at the price of a dinghy, and we’re all missing it. 🙄

When Your Assets are Worth More Than Your Stock: A Mispricing So Rare It’s Practically Extinct

In his December 1 report, Alemán made the case that Strategy’s Bitcoin was acquired at a solid $74,432 per BTC. Do the math, and voila – the company’s BTC holdings are sitting on a 22% unrealized profit. Yet, according to his calculations, the stock’s price is so out of whack that it’s trading 78% below the value suggested by its Bitcoin treasure chest. A steal, I tell you. Yet, the stock’s price keeps ignoring the elephant in the room: actual value.

CryptoQuant’s MSTR price bands are the big shot here. These bands show where the stock price is in relation to what its Bitcoin reserves actually imply. The “upper band” marks the good times when the stock is trading at a premium, and the “lower band” is where the heavy discounts are lurking. Guess where MSTR is right now? You guessed it – deep in the discount zone. And historically, that’s been the perfect time for a big comeback. 🐍

But don’t worry. In case you were wondering, Strategy isn’t slacking on their Bitcoin game. Recently, the firm made its largest BTC purchase since July, coughing up over $830 million for the digital gold at around $100,000 per coin. So much for those rumors that they were selling. Oh, they’re still buying. 📉

Price Slump: Stock’s Roller Coaster Ride and the ETF Exodus

Let’s talk about MSTR’s recent stock performance. On December 1, it closed at a pitiful $177. Compare that to its 52-week high near $457, and it’s clear: something’s off. MSTR has been dragged down by the broader Bitcoin-linked equity sell-off, its ousting from the S&P 500 on November 25, and the looming fear that upcoming MSCI index rules could force more selling from companies like Strategy, which are, for lack of a better term, “too crypto-heavy.”

On the flip side, institutional investors are flocking to spot Bitcoin ETFs (hello, BlackRock!), and they’re abandoning leveraged “Bitcoin proxy” stocks like MSTR. This rotation has left MSTR floundering, with its market value now falling below the worth of its Bitcoin stash for the first time in five years. Ouch! But hey, that’s what happens when you ride the crypto wave too hard. 🌊

Some voices, such as Bitwise’s Matt Hougan, suggest that companies with big digital asset holdings can’t expect to trade at full value, thanks to operational costs and inherent risk. But Strategy isn’t just sitting around and hoping for the best. They’ve been reassuring bondholders that their BTC reserves cover their convertible debt nearly sixfold at $74,000 Bitcoin. Even if BTC crashes to $25,000, they’re still pretty solid. It’s almost like they’ve thought this through… maybe. 🤔

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2025-12-01 23:39