As a seasoned crypto investor with a few battle scars from past market volatilities, I find myself standing at a crossroads as I read these analyst predictions about Bitcoin‘s potential downturn. The head and shoulders pattern and the $80,000 price target set by Aksel Kibar have me feeling a bit like a deer caught in the headlights, but then again, it’s not my first rodeo.
The market technician’s words echo the wisdom of an old cowboy I once knew who used to say, “The market don’t care about your feelings.” In other words, we can’t afford to ignore these warnings or let our emotions cloud our judgment.
Skew’s insights about the dominant short positioning and the importance of holding $94,000 as the lowest rung of the range are valuable reminders that we must always stay vigilant and adaptable in this ever-changing market. The fact that the perpetual futures market is tilted toward margin shorts only underscores the need for caution.
So, here I stand, ready to face whatever comes next, armed with my experience and a healthy dose of skepticism. As I’ve learned through countless crypto roller coasters, the market can be as unpredictable as a wild mustang, but it’s always worth the ride. And who knows? Maybe this dip will turn out to be just another opportunity to buy low and sell high.
To lighten the mood, let me leave you with a joke my old cowboy friend used to tell: “Why don’t we ever let Bitcoin go to sleep? Because we’re afraid it might wake up as Dogecoin!” Now that’s what I call a market with character!
The price of Bitcoin has been declining since it peaked at $108,353 on December 17th. The latest dip below $92,000 has sparked concern among analysts, as it could signal the confirmation of a bearish head and shoulders chart pattern.
If the price dips slightly more than a few times each day and falls below the pattern’s neckline at approximately $92,000, it may lead to a drop towards the pattern’s predicted bottom at around $79,500.
If the “head and shoulders” pattern holds true for Bitcoin, according to market technician Aksel Kibar, we can anticipate the price reaching an estimated $80,000.
Should the pattern function as a Head and Shoulders top, the projected price would reach approximately 80K. This could potentially be a retracement following the completion of the broadening pattern, which was broken out above at 73.7K on the Bitcoin-to-USD chart.
— Aksel Kibar, CMT (@TechCharts) December 26, 2024
Regarding the short-term fluctuations in Bitcoin’s price, noticeable drops towards stronger buying levels, like the drop to $91,500, are being counterbalanced. However, each time Bitcoin rebounds and reaches the upper limit of its daily range, there is a surge in selling activity.
As reported by well-known cryptocurrency trader Skew, “the majority of traders are currently holding short positions,” suggesting that a significant number of them anticipate a swift drop in Bitcoin’s price within its current trading range. Any additional aggressive shorting could indicate that the market believes an immediate breakdown is imminent for Bitcoin.
Previously, there was a strategy involving de-risking and hedge flows. Now, short positions are predominantly held, with a focus on monitoring potential intensified shorting. If shorts continue to increase significantly, it suggests that the market anticipates an imminent drop in value beyond the current price range. In other words, it implies a higher probability of…
— Skew Δ (@52kskew) December 30, 2024
Skew stressed the importance of the $94,000 level, saying,
“I think failure to reclaim $94K with market remaining supply heavy from spot, likely results in the final flush.”
In simpler terms, for the current price range to remain intact, we need at least four consecutive trading sessions where the closing price is above $94,000 each day. This is because the market has seen more selling recently, with many traders holding short positions. If we can hold the lower boundary of the range at $94,000, it could potentially counteract the bearish trend suggested by a specific chart pattern called a ‘head and shoulders’ on the daily chart.
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2024-12-30 22:33