Ah, Stellar (XLM)-that capricious beast of the crypto markets! Like a feverish gambler in a smoky St. Petersburg tavern, it surged in July, only to languish in the purgatory of indecision thereafter. In September, it tumbled from the lofty heights of $.40, yet-oh cruel irony!-clawed back 8% in a fortnight. Such is the torment of the speculative soul. 🎭

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Spot accumulation crept forward like a guilty conscience, even as money flow withered. The Accumulation/Distribution line-that sly devil-climbed to 1.72 billion, while CMF languished at −0.13. A divergence! A silent feast of the damned, gorging in the shadows while liquidity fled like a thief in the night. 🏃

Momentum? Bah! A ghost of its former self. The histogram (BBP) barely flickered during the ascent to ~$0.417. Higher highs on dying momentum-a classic tragedy! And yet, even after the peak, price clung to ~$0.38-0.39 like a drunk to a lamppost. Strong hands, or just fools clinging to hope? 🤷

October’s Three Circles of Crypto Hell 🔥

• $0.36-0.37 (the abyss): This zone mocked the mid-Sept pullbacks. With CMF still negative and whales hoarding stablecoins like misers, one last plunge seems inevitable. Fall below $0.37, and the abyss yawns-$0.33 beckons like a debtor’s prison. 💸
• $0.40-0.41 (purgatory’s gate): Rejections cluster here like sinners at confession. The base case? A slow, grinding torment around $0.40 as supply is tested anew. Only a close above $0.41 offers absolution-proof of real demand, not just short-covering desperation. 🙏
• $0.45-0.46 (the fool’s paradise): A breakout past $0.41 could-could!-propel XLM to $0.45±0.01. But trust not until CMF turns positive and whales abandon their stablecoin cloisters. Only then might redemption shine… or is it just another illusion? ✨

The Grand Inquisitor’s Verdict

September was a tale of silent accumulation and rallies built on the backs of the small and the desperate. October? A dance around $0.40-0.41, with $0.36-0.37 lurking as a test of faith. Break past $0.41, and the heavens-well, $0.45-0.46-await. But remember, dear reader: in crypto, as in life, hope is often the cruelest jest of all. 😏

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2025-09-21 13:02