As a seasoned crypto investor with a knack for political betting and a keen eye for market trends, I find myself intrigued by the recent developments in the prediction marketplace landscape, particularly with Kalshi’s entry into the fray. Having weathered through the 2016 and 2020 elections, I can attest to the value of these platforms in capturing public sentiment more accurately than traditional polls.
Starting from October 28th, Kalshi has announced that it will begin accepting deposits in USD Coin (USDC), a widely-used stablecoin, as they prepare for an influx of users in connection with the upcoming US elections in November. This confirmation was made official by the platform itself.
It’s been announced that cryptocurrency deposits are about to go live, and the process of converting these deposits into traditional currency (offramping) will be handled by ZeroHash, a well-known digital payment service provider, as per a report by Fortune Magazine.
The race among political prediction platforms is getting intense, with Polymarket significantly ahead and other contenders like Kalshi working hard to keep pace.
Related: Kalshi adds global elections to betting platform
On October 7th, Kalshi made available event contracts for wagering on the results of the U.S. elections following their victory in a groundbreaking court case in September.
For the first time ever, an election prediction market was given permission to function within the United States. This opens up opportunities for similar ventures to join, including Web3 platforms like Polymarket.
October 28th saw Robinhood, a platform for cryptocurrency and stock trading, unveil election betting contracts for some users, allowing them to wager on the result of the upcoming presidential contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican nominee Donald Trump.
Currently, there’s approximately $2.6 billion at stake in the November presidential election on Polymarket, based on their website data, up until October 23rd.
Since October 7th, Kalshi’s primary market, “Who will win the Presidential election?”, has accumulated approximately $87 million in total bets as of October 23rd, based on data from Kalshi’s official website.
According to U.S. regulators, platforms like Kalshi that deal with predicting election outcomes pose a risk to the honesty of elections. However, experts in the field argue that these prediction markets frequently reflect public opinion more precisely than traditional surveys and polls do.
According to online prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi, it is likely that Donald Trump will win the presidency by a considerable margin. As of October 28th, both platforms estimate Trump’s chances at around 62% on Polymarket and 66% on Kalshi.
In the November election, Trump, who advocates for making America a global leader in cryptocurrency, faces off against Harris, who has not been as vocal about the industry.
According to Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets research, Bitcoin‘s (BTC) current performance is setting up a “strongly optimistic scenario” for the cryptocurrency as investors prepare for the upcoming election.
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2024-10-28 22:58