As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I have seen my fair share of bull runs and bear markets. The 2025 bull run is shaping up to be an exciting time for cryptocurrencies, but I’m not convinced that Ether will be the shining star of this event.
Don’t get me wrong; I appreciate Ethereum‘s volatility and its potential as a groundbreaking technology. However, based on my analysis and the current market trends, I believe that it remains a poor medium-term investment for 2025, with ETH likely to underperform BTC once again.
One of the key metrics to watch in 2025 will be the trend in active validators, which has shown a concerning decrease over the past 30 days. This could indicate more validators exiting the network, raising red flags about its long-term sustainability. Additionally, the recent upgrades such as Duncan and Pectra have not had the significant positive impact on price that was hoped for, which adds to my bearish outlook for Ether in 2025.
Of course, other analysts may disagree with me, and that’s perfectly fine! After all, as Mark Twain once said, “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” So, I encourage everyone to do their own research and make informed decisions based on their analysis and understanding of the market.
In the meantime, I’ll be keeping a close eye on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, hoping to catch the next big wave in this ever-evolving industry!
10x Research’s chief research officer, Markus Thielen, opines that Ether may not be the most prudent investment option for the 2025 bull market, predicting that it could yield less impressive returns than Bitcoin.
As a researcher, I too find myself in a state of anticipation, as other analysts suggest that the market trend could potentially move in either direction. We are all eagerly watching the price chart for concrete indications to help us determine which path the market will take.
10x Research’s Head of Research, Markus Thielen, expressed in a December 30th market report that it wouldn’t be unexpected if Ethereum encounters difficulties generating substantial increases next year, although he acknowledges that there remains a potential for a new catalyst to emerge.
Ether a ‘poor’ investment for the medium term, says analyst
As an analyst, I acknowledge the dynamic nature of Ethereum, but I’m inclined to view it as a less promising medium-term investment. I anticipate that Ethereum (ETH) will lag behind Bitcoin (BTC) in terms of performance in the year 2025.
“As a result, our stance on Ethereum remains clear: ‘avoid.’”
Thielen emphasizes that tracking the direction of active validators will be crucial in 2025. Interestingly, he mentioned a decrease in the one-month growth rate of these validators, with a drop of around 1% over the last 30 days. This decline has sparked worries about the possibility of more validators leaving the network due to increasing risks.
Thielen stated that it makes sense for there to be an increase in the process of unstaking, as he believes that Ethereum doesn’t have substantial demand beyond staking.
Others would likely disagree with that statement.
Tim Lowe, the top executive at the company represented by the attestant, stated to CryptoMoon that an enhancement in marketing strategies and a clear, strong message about Ether’s value could significantly boost its popularity. This increase in demand would naturally attract more investors to it gradually.
Lowe sees diversification from Bitcoin as a simple catalyst for Ethereum.
Ether underperformed against Bitcoin
Over the past few months from January 1st, Bitcoin has seen a significant increase of approximately 121.4%, but when it comes to Ether, its returns are slightly lower at around 46.29% for the same timeframe, as indicated by CoinMarketCap statistics.
On January 11th, U.S.-listed Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) debuted, sparking high interest and ultimately contributing to Bitcoin’s price soaring to record highs by March. In contrast, Ether ETFs introduced in the U.S. in July saw much less demand, resulting in a more pessimistic outlook towards the asset.
Bitcoin ETFs saw $35.27 billion in inflows across the year, while Ether ETFs reached $2.66 billion.
Thielen expressed that the Duncan upgrade in March, which lowered gas fees and increased transaction capacity, came “half a year too tardy.” He explained that this update had been implemented after the peak of the meme coin market surge, and the market has since shifted towards the more economical Solana (SOL) option.
He is also skeptical of the Pectra upgrade, which is due to be introduced in early 2025.
As a cryptocurrency investor, I’ve observed that out of the 19 upgrades we’ve seen thus far, only two have significantly influenced the price, and interestingly enough, these improvements took place during the Bitcoin bull market periods.
As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed that the anticipated drivers for Ethereum in 2024 – the three significant catalysts – haven’t lived up to expectations. Regrettably, they’ve contributed very little to the network’s overall value.
According to Thielen’s analysis, Ether might not outshine Bitcoin in 2025, but other crypto experts view Ether’s price as unpredictable, potentially moving up or down.
In a recent Reddit post on December 31st, the anonymous cryptocurrency trader known as Cold Blooded Schiller suggested that Ether has been confined within a specific price range since December 25th. He proposed that there are two possible outcomes moving forward.
As a seasoned trader with over a decade of experience in the crypto market, I find myself torn between two scenarios regarding Ether. On one hand, my optimistic self is drawn to the possibility of Ether experiencing a “sweep and run” to the upside, propelling it to break through current price barriers. This could be a promising sign for those who believe in its potential and have been holding onto their investments.
On the other hand, I can’t ignore the cautionary voice within me that whispers of a potential breakdown towards the December 20 range low. If this happens, Ether might even retest the $3,000 level once more. This is a stark reminder that even the most promising assets are not immune to market volatility and downturns.
In conclusion, while I am hopeful for the upside potential of Ether, I also encourage fellow traders to remain vigilant and prepare for any eventualities in this dynamic crypto market.
Agreeing with a similar viewpoint, an anonymous cryptocurrency investor named “Dal” anticipates that Ethereum might head towards either of two possible paths.
In my analysis, if we manage to switch the resolution from 3,554 to 4k, that seems like a good move. However, should that not be feasible, I believe we can successfully overtake the resolution at 3,102 instead. (Dal’s statement in the Dec. 31 X post)
Michael van de Poppe, the founder of MN Capital, holds a positive outlook towards Ether and predicts that it could potentially break free from its relationship with Bitcoin by early January 2025, suggesting potential growth for Ether compared to Bitcoin during that timeframe.
In a post on December 24th, Van de Poppe expressed his expectation that the ratio of ETH to BTC might exceed 0.04 in January.
As of its release, the comparison between Ether (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC), represented by the ETH/BTC ratio, stands at approximately 0.03571, based on information from TradingView.
Based on my personal journey and experiences in the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrencies, I believe it is essential to approach this field with caution and a healthy dose of skepticism. As someone who has been closely following the rise and fall of various digital currencies over the past few years, I have learned that the crypto market can be highly volatile and unpredictable. While there are certainly opportunities for significant financial gains, it is crucial to remember that investments in cryptocurrencies carry inherent risks, and losses can occur quickly and without warning.
With this in mind, I strongly advise anyone considering investing in or trading cryptocurrencies to conduct thorough research, educate themselves on the technology behind these digital assets, and be aware of the potential pitfalls that may arise. It’s also essential to remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, and there are no guarantees when it comes to investing in cryptocurrencies.
Ultimately, while I am personally intrigued by the potential of blockchain technology and the decentralized economy it enables, I urge everyone to approach this exciting and rapidly-changing field with a critical eye and a solid understanding of the risks involved. Always do your due diligence and make informed decisions based on your own research and risk tolerance.
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2025-01-01 06:51