Examining Tessa Thompson’s Oscar Nomination Chances For Hedda

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2025 has seen many outstanding performances in film, and Tessa Thompson’s work in Hedda is a standout. While known for her roles in popular franchises like Creed and the Marvel Cinematic Universe as Valkyrie, Thompson delivers an exceptional performance in Nia DaCosta’s captivating and turbulent period drama.

Thompson gives a compelling performance in a new version of Henrik Ibsen’s Hedda Gabler. The character of Hedda is strong and usually in charge. She’s attractive, clever, and determined to get what she desires, but also hides a deep sadness. She can be both icy and charming, sincere and manipulative, all while trying to conceal the pain that motivates her.

Emma Thompson is brilliant in Hedda, consistently delivering a powerful performance. She effortlessly shifts between the character’s complex and varied emotions, proving her range as an actress. It’s an Oscar-worthy performance, though it’s uncertain whether she’ll actually receive an Academy Award nomination.

Tessa Thompson’s Oscar Chances & The State Of The Best Actress Race

Tessa Thompson’s best chance at an Oscar nomination is as the lead actress in Hedda. Because she’s clearly the central character, there’s no way to successfully campaign for her to be considered in the supporting actress category.

While Thompson received a Gotham Award nomination for her lead performance, she isn’t currently considered a frontrunner for the 2026 Best Actress Oscar. She’s trailing behind other actresses in terms of public buzz, but a nomination isn’t out of the question if she gains more recognition.

Jessie Buckley, known for her role in Hamnet, is currently the favorite to win, but Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) are also likely nominees. Other actresses with a good chance of being nominated include Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Jennifer Lawrence (Die, My Love), and Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another).

Honestly, after looking at the Best Actress race for the 2026 Oscars, I’ve had to leave Thompson out of my top five predictions. I really wanted to include her after seeing Hedda – she was fantastic! – but she’s still in my “maybe” pile right now. And it’s not just me, either; pretty much everyone who follows the Oscars seems to feel the same way.

Okay, let’s talk predictions. Looking at the major forecasters, this actress is landing somewhere around 10th to 11th place – Clayton Davis at Variety has her at 11, while Scott Feinberg over at THR sees her as a possibility around 10th. But the team at NextBestPicture? They aren’t quite sold. She’s outside their collective top 10, and no one there has her firmly in their top 5. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, and she’s definitely on the bubble.

According to GoldDerby, Thompson currently ranks 11th overall in predictions, factoring in both experts and user forecasts, giving her a 1.28% chance of receiving an Oscar nomination. Out of the 34 experts tracked by the site, only one – Shawn Edwards from WDAF-TV Fox – believes she will be nominated.

Betting markets also have her as a long shot, as she’s +3500 on DraftKings.

Let’s be real, getting an Oscar nod for Thompson is going to be tough. But her recent Gotham Award nomination? That could be a game-changer. It feels like the very beginning of a push from Amazon – now that Hedda is finally available on Prime Video and people are actually watching it, they’ll likely ramp up a full campaign. It’s an uphill battle, sure, but this nomination offers a glimmer of hope, and Amazon seems ready to capitalize on it.

Amazon’s Oscar History & What It Means For Tessa Thompson

How a movie studio promotes a film is crucial for influencing awards season buzz. While interest in Thompson’s performance in Hedda will likely grow as more people see the film, Amazon’s promotional efforts are also playing a significant role.

Netflix has consistently earned Oscar nominations and wins, but Amazon hasn’t had the same success at the Academy Awards. Amazon got off to a good start in 2016 with Manchester by the Sea, becoming the first streaming service to receive a Best Picture nomination.

The film earned Amazon its first-ever Oscar nominations for acting performances, with Casey Affleck, Lucas Hedges, and Michelle Williams all receiving nods for Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress. Affleck ultimately took home the award for Best Actor.

Since then, Amazon-produced films haven’t won any further acting Oscars. Recent nominations include Leslie Odom Jr. for One Night in Miami, Riz Ahmed and Paul Raci for Sound of Metal, Maria Makalova for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, and Nicole Kidman, Javier Bardem, and J.K. Simmons for Being the Ricardos.

Amazon has tried to push its films for Oscar nominations in the past, though they haven’t often won. It’s too early to say if Thompson has a chance, as she still needs to be nominated. Historically, Amazon has only earned one Best Actress nomination, so whether they can do it again in 2026 will likely depend on how much they support her campaign.

Even if Thompson delivers an Oscar-worthy performance, Amazon is also managing Julia Roberts’ campaign for After the Hunt. However, the Luca Guadagnino film hasn’t received the positive reception many expected, which has diminished Roberts’ chances of being a serious contender for an award.

Now that After the Hunt’s Oscar chances seem to be fading, Amazon is likely to focus its awards campaign on Hedda. Currently, Hedda is generating more buzz and support among awards voters, and it’s the studio’s strongest contender for a nomination at the 98th Academy Awards – they don’t have any other promising films in the running.

I’m really hoping the studio pushes for this strategy because I think it could genuinely give Tessa Thompson a strong shot at breaking into the top five contenders. If they do FYC screenings for Hedda and can get Tessa to do some Q&As afterward, that would be amazing. Honestly, the more Amazon highlights the film and Tessa’s performance, the better her chances are of getting a Best Actress nomination next year – she deserves it, and I’d hate to see her overlooked!

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2025-11-04 02:32