Expert Forecasts Bitcoin Surge To $80,000 Amid US-Iran Ceasefire And Oil Price Drop

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Ah, the joys of market speculation. Sam Daodu, a so-called “market expert” (as if such things exist), has graced us with his latest April outlook for Bitcoin (BTC), highlighting the usual suspects: geopolitical drama and the whims of macroeconomic forces. Naturally, these will be the determining factors for Bitcoin’s next move-because, of course, it’s not like Bitcoin’s price has ever been unpredictable.

Daodu’s latest epistle comes after Bitcoin ran headlong into resistance, just above the lofty $72,000 mark. And while the market has managed to churn out its first consecutive quarterly losses since 2022 (nothing to see here, folks), Daodu assures us that April could still offer a reprieve for the beleaguered crypto.

Bitcoin Faces Unusual April

Let’s get this straight-Bitcoin’s performance in April is “unusual” because, for once, external macro and geopolitical forces might actually matter. Daodu points out Bitcoin’s historical tendency to finish April in the black, having closed the month higher 9 times out of 13 since 2013-yes, a mighty 69% win rate. That sounds impressive until you realise those wins were often inflated by some monstrous outlier years like 2013 and 2020. Strip away the absurd highs, and you’re left with an average April return of a modest 0.7%. Hardly enough to make you abandon your day job.

In the more rational world, Daodu claims the median April gain stands at 7.1%. Of course, that didn’t stop the Bitcoin faithful from waxing poetic about the best-ever April (2013: +36.8%) and the worst (2022: −17.2%). Ah, how delightful it must be to pull stats out of a hat and call it “history.”

But what makes April 2026 so “unusual,” you ask? Ah, here’s the real kicker: geopolitical chaos and macroeconomic doom! The ongoing US-Iran conflict is keeping oil prices stubbornly above $100 a barrel, while the Federal Reserve has decided, quite unhelpfully, to revise its inflation forecast upward to 2.7%. As if markets needed more bad news.

These developments have led the market to abandon all hope of near-term rate cuts, bracing instead for higher rates well into the second quarter. This means tighter liquidity and a whole lot more geopolitical tension, which is really just the kind of environment Bitcoin thrives in-if by “thrives” you mean “flounders spectacularly.”

Daodu, ever the optimist, warns that the usual early-April dip and subsequent rebound are not guaranteed. It all hinges on three simple elements: oil prices dropping below $90, a shift in monetary expectations, and the US-Iran ceasefire lasting long enough to bring about a miracle.

Three Possible Paths

Not one to leave things to chance, Daodu presents us with three possible price scenarios. In the best-case scenario (which, of course, is only slightly less likely than finding a unicorn), a genuine ceasefire and oil prices falling below $90 would offer a reprieve for the embattled market. That relief, Daodu suggests, might just be enough to push Bitcoin past $75,000 and into a glorious run towards $80,000. Hallelujah!

And if Congress, in its infinite wisdom, manages to pass the CLARITY Act by late April (because that sounds totally likely), the market will be graced with regulatory clarity for digital assets. Naturally, this would ignite a rally, as we all know that “clarity” is exactly what the crypto world is missing right now.

In Daodu’s more realistic “base case,” the month is expected to be decidedly meh. Persistent tax-related selling in early April could cap any significant gains, keeping Bitcoin stuck between $68,000 and $76,000-basically the financial equivalent of being stuck in traffic with no way out. Without some grand geopolitical breakthrough (like the US-Iran ceasefire turning into a treaty), Bitcoin will just muddle along in that range, marking time as it waits for something to happen.

And then there’s the bearish scenario (because what would a market outlook be without some grim predictions?). If the ceasefire collapses and the conflict escalates once again, Daodu warns that Bitcoin could lose support at $69,000, triggering a cascade of liquidations and forcing short-term holders to flee for the hills. This could push Bitcoin down to $65,000-or, if things really get ugly, all the way to $50,000. In case you’re wondering, Standard Chartered has kindly warned us that a deeper slump might be on the cards if macro conditions worsen. Isn’t that reassuring?

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2026-04-10 08:11