As a seasoned analyst with extensive experience in political betting markets and financial markets worldwide, I find myself intrigued by this story of “Theo” and his significant bets on Donald Trump for the 2024 US presidential election. While it’s always fascinating to see large sums being wagered on political outcomes, what stands out here is the apparent lack of any political agenda behind these bets.
Among the individuals managing significant wagers on Polymarket related to Republican Donald Trump potentially winning the 2024 U.S. presidency, it’s been alleged that one of them stated his primary motivation was financial gain, rather than attempting to sway political affairs.
A report from November 1st revealed that investigative journalists at the Wall Street Journal identified a French individual who established Polymarket accounts under the aliases Fredi9999 Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie. These accounts, allegedly managed by an individual known as “Théo,” have reportedly made bets totaling approximately $38 million that support Trump in the 2024 elections.
As of its release, Polymarket indicated approximately $2.9 billion wagered on either Trump or Vice President Harris to emerge victorious in 2024, favoring the Republican candidate at 60.3%. This prediction differed from numerous American polls that showed both presidential hopefuls neck-and-neck prior to the election on November 5th.
According to WSJ reporters, Theo stated plainly that he has no political motives whatsoever. His purpose in participating at Polymarket is simply to earn profits.
Unlike platforms such as Kalshi, which allows US citizens to wager on election outcomes following a court victory against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Polymarket is only accessible to individuals residing outside the United States. This implies that foreign users with significant funds can influence the odds on this platform, potentially skewing what some users perceive as an extension of polling.
Four days until the US Election
Theo’s investment portfolios contain approximately $7 million in stocks predicting Trump’s win in the US popular vote, $27 million anticipating Trump’s victory through the Electoral College votes, around $3.4 million betting against Harris winning the popular vote, and about $800,000 wagering on Harris losing the presidential election. If Trump wins, this could lead to a substantial financial gain for Theo.
As a crypto investor, I’m closely watching the approaching U.S. election, knowing that the results might take days to be announced after polls close on November 5, given how tight the presidential race is expected to be. Vice President Harris recently delivered what seemed like a final appeal in Washington D.C. on October 29, yet she’s been relatively quiet about digital assets as her 2024 campaign winds down.
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2024-11-01 23:51