As a seasoned analyst with a background in financial markets and experience in following the Bitcoin market closely, I believe that Rekt Capital’s analysis is plausible based on historical trends. The post-halving “danger zone” is indeed a period of heightened volatility for Bitcoin, as seen in previous market cycles.
According to cryptanalysis based on historical trends, Bitcoin (BTC) might have moved past the potentially perilous period following its halving event, signaling an impending phase of consolidation.
On May 13, cryptocurrency market analyst “Rekt Capital” announced via an update on his Bitcoin market cycle diagram that the potentially risky period for the asset following the halving event has passed.
Bitcoin is celebrating with a “good bounce from the re-accumulation range low support,” he added.
In past market trends, there have been specific timeframes, referred to as “pre-halving” and “post-halving” periods, during which the value of the asset tends to decrease around the occurrence of a halving event.
During this recent cycle, Bitcoin experienced a decline of approximately 23% from its highest price in mid-March, reaching a low of $56,800 around May 1. This drop could signify the end of the risky period following Bitcoin’s halving event.
As a researcher studying market trends, I noted that should the price dip not reach $56,000 as the lowest point, this ongoing correction would match the longest drawdown in this market cycle, spanning 63 days.
However, history suggests that this current pullback ended at $56,000 and 47 days, he opined.
As a crypto investor, I’m pleased to see that Bitcoin (BTC) has bounced back and is trading above $63,000 at present. This development aligns with my analysis suggesting a return to the re-accumulation zone.
While historical trend repetitions can provide some insight, they don’t guarantee future outcomes. After a halving event, there might be additional price corrections during the ensuing consolidation phase.
The analyst, however, was confident that current support levels would hold.
“Bitcoin is showing early-stage signs of slowing down in its sell-side momentum, slowly developing a curl against the ~$60,000 support,”
To maintain its current position is essential, as this stability could potentially lead to another rise and a return to the price of $68,000.
As an analyst, I’d rephrase it as follows: In a blog post on May 13, Raoul Pal, the founder of Global Macro Investor, stated that the macroeconomic trends during the summer and fall are influenced by the global liquidity cycle. He further noted that cryptocurrencies tend to perform exceptionally well in this “banana zone,” which is characterized by surging prices of high-risk assets towards the end of the year.
About two weeks ago, Arthur Hayes, the ex-CEO of BitMEX, agreed that a phase of flat price action and stockpiling may take place prior to significant market shifts towards the end of this year.
Another point he made was how the infusion of liquidity into the financial system through Federal Reserve monetary policy might find its way into more speculative investments, including cryptocurrencies.
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2024-05-14 06:12