How low can Bitcoin price go? Analysis disputes ‘black swan event’

Bitcoin (BTC) faces new lower BTC price targets after dropping up to 15% since the weekend.

Traders and market analysts are eagerly discussing potential low points for the market and estimating how soon these may appear.

$59,000 final BTC price dip by April 17?

The price of BTC/USD attempted to rise above $61,000 but was unable to sustain the gain. Currently, it hovers around $62,000 on April 16.

For popular analyst Mark Cullen, the course is set for a fresh attack on $60,000 resistance.

Using the Elliott Wave principle, he indicated that a significant drop towards approximately $59,000 for Bitcoin might occur soon.

“It’s still quite likely that Bitcoin ($BTC) may have one more drop in price to finish the final correction wave C of its larger, flatter pattern,” the person shared with their audience on X (previously known as Twitter).

“Should complete today if its going to play out.”

How low can Bitcoin price go? Analysis disputes 'black swan event'

A $59,000 Bitcoin price would mark a new low since late February, which is also roughly a 20% decrease from its most recent record high.

Bitcoin risks loss of key moving average

As more analysts, among them Matthew Hyland, continued their analysis, they turned their attention towards the approaching end of the week, seeking clues about the length of the ongoing price correction.

Hyland pointed out on X that the 10-week moving average for Bitcoin’s price against the US Dollar had been surpassed, now sitting at $64,130 and no longer providing support for BTC/USD.

“The outcome will significantly hinge on the closing price of the weekly candlestick,” he noted in his explanatory text.

“The last time it tested it, it was a great buying opportunity and never closed below it. The close will be what matters most.”

How low can Bitcoin price go? Analysis disputes 'black swan event'

The 10-week simple moving average (SMA) was below the level of full candles in the middle of 2023 based on information from CryptoMoon Markets Pro and TradingView.

BTC price metric calls for lower reaccumulation phase

Longer time periods might lead to disappointing circumstances for Bitcoin supporters, according to Binh Dang’s perspective at CryptoQuant.

Based on his assessment of Bitcoin’s Adjusted Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) indicator, he anticipated that the BTC/USD pair might continue to trend lower before attempting to regain its previous highs.

The number of days a coin remains in a digital wallet before being transferred on the blockchain is calculated by CVDD, and this duration is then multiplied by the coin’s current market price.

“Binh shared that his revised CVDD indicator effectively identified local peaks. He’s excited to see how Bitcoin behaves during the second phase (represented by the orange line) for further confirmation and accumulation.”

Binh pointed out that history has demonstrated the possibility of more significant market corrections. However, he expressed uncertainty about the current geopolitical factors driving the downturn reaching the extreme levels of panic experienced, such as during the global market collapse due to COVID-19 in March 2020.

A trip to the chart’s “Phase 1” line at just under $40,000 now constitutes the “worst case.”

How low can Bitcoin price go? Analysis disputes 'black swan event'

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2024-04-16 13:31