- Peter Schiff, the eternal optimist of doom, declared that Bitcoin has hit a ‘major top.’ But is it really time to cash out, or is he just feeling a bit peckish?
- As of June 2025, not a single one of the 30 key market peak indicators showed any signs of overheating. So, you know, maybe hold off on the panic selling?
Bitcoin [BTC] took a little tumble to $102K on June 12th, thanks to Israel and Iran deciding to have a little chat. 🗣️💥
With the threat of a regional conflict, markets went into full-on freak-out mode, with BTC dropping 7% for the week, right alongside the U.S. stock market. 📉💸
Meanwhile, gold, the metal of choice for those who still believe in tangible assets, shot up to $3.4K. This, according to Peter Schiff, the man who thinks Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme, meant that BTC had hit a ‘major top.’ He proclaimed,
“Priced in gold, Bitcoin is now more than 15% below its Nov. 2021 peak.”
Bitcoin vs. Gold: The Great Debate
Schiff added that BTC’s inability to outperform gold for over three years, despite all the government backing and corporate love, suggested that the ‘bubble has peaked.’ He said,
“A major top has been formed, as Bitcoin has been distributed from strong to weak hands. The whales have been cashing out to latecomers who will be left holding the bag.”
He was right about one thing: BTC was indeed below its 2021 peak relative to gold at the time. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves just yet.
According to the BTC/gold ratio, which tracks BTC’s performance against gold, BTC was about 22% away from reclaiming its 2021 peak in gold terms. 📊
Back in 2021, the BTC/gold ratio hit a high of 37. A fake breakout at 40 in January led to a 36% dip to 26, meaning gold outperformed BTC by 36% in Q1 2025. 🤦♂️
However, it was a bit premature to call a top, as the BTC/gold ratio was still in a multi-year uptrend, as shown by the ascending channel (white). If the channel breaks lower, then maybe Schiff’s prediction could come true. But for now, it’s just a blip on the radar.
Moreover, a composite of market cycle peak indicators, from ETF flows to valuation models like MVRV Z-Score, showed no signs of a likely peak as of press time. According to CoinGlass’ Bull Market Peak Indicators, none of the 30 metrics flagged any overheating. This suggested that current levels were a solid 100% ‘HOLD’ despite the Middle East tensions. 🤞
Investor Ken Teng, known as Chicken Genius on X, predicted that the U.S. would likely print more money to address its debt crisis. This, he argued, would likely boost BTC, a theory often referred to as ‘nothing stops this train’ in Crypto Twitter. 🚂🔥
Glassnode agreed with Teng, noting that the recent dip didn’t break key short-term supports, including the short-term holder (STH) realized price at $97K.
“Despite the recent pullback, BTC remains above most major short-term cost basis levels…As most short-term holders are still in profit, the top-heavy risk seems limited.”
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2025-06-13 20:13