Ah, the age-old debate! Is the venerable 4-year Bitcoin halving cycle still a thing, or has it been tossed into the dustbin of history? 🤔
For eons, the faithful have clung to the belief that after each halving, the price would dance to a predictable tune. But lo and behold! The global economic orchestra has taken center stage, and many now claim that Bitcoin is merely a puppet on the strings of the wider market. The old patterns? They seem to be fading like a distant memory. 🎭
Let us delve into the wisdom of the so-called experts, shall we? 🧐
The 4-Year Halving Cycle Might Be Over
Enter Bitcoin sage Pierre Rochard, who boldly proclaims that the classic 4-year halving cycles are likely as dead as a dodo. He argues that halvings have lost their bite, as a staggering 95% of Bitcoin has already been mined. What a twist! 🥴
It seems more likely than not that the 4 year cycles are over. Halvings are immaterial to trading float, 95% of the BTC have been mined, supply comes from buying out OGs, demand is the sum of spot retail, ETPs getting added to wealth platforms, and treasury companies.
– Pierre Rochard (@BitcoinPierre) August 11, 2025
Most of the shiny coins entering the market today are merely the leftovers from early holders cashing in, while the demand is fueled by retail investors, wealth platforms offering Bitcoin ETFs, and companies hoarding BTC like it’s the last cookie in the jar. 🍪
Crypto author Jason Williams chimes in, noting that the top 100 Bitcoin treasury companies now clutch nearly 1 million BTC. “This is why the Bitcoin 4-year cycle is over,” he quips. Oh, the irony! 😏
This is why the Bitcoin 4 year cycle is over.
Top 100 Bitcoin treasury companies hold almost 1 MILLION Bitcoin
BlackRock. Fidelity. Bit wise. Etc.– Jason Ai. Williams (@GoingParabolic) August 9, 2025
Institutional Forces and Macro Trends Are Now in Control
Recently, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan stepped into the fray, explaining why the old halving pattern is fading faster than a magician’s rabbit. 🎩
He asserts that the halving’s grip on the market is loosening. Meanwhile, lower interest rates are now playing nice with crypto, regulatory clarity is improving, and institutional adoption is accelerating like a caffeinated cheetah. Together, these forces are reducing the chances of wild boom-and-bust swings. 🐆
Hougan envisions 2026 not as a chaotic super-cycle, but as a period of steady, sustained growth. How quaint! 🌱
“I think it’s more ‘sustained steady boom’ than super-cycle,” he muses. How poetic! 🎶
Not everyone agrees…
But of course, there are always dissenters. Crypto analyst CRYPTO₿IRB argues that the rise of ETFs actually strengthens the cycle by tying crypto to the traditional finance world, which also loves its multi-year patterns. Oh, the drama! 🎭
What Bitcoin Price Trends Reveal
Crypto expert and YouTuber Benjamin Cowen observes that Bitcoin is on track to close August with gains, following a familiar post-halving pattern. How predictable! 📈
He points out that historically, Bitcoin tends to rise in July and August, dip in September, then climb again toward the market peak in Q4, before heading into a bear market. If this plays out again, it could mean that while the mechanics of the cycle are changing, its seasonal tendencies remain. How comforting! 🌦️
Admittedly, there is a lot going on with this chart.
But if you look carefully at it, you’ll see that #Bitcoin prints the same pattern each post-halving year.
Up in July-Aug
Down in Sep
Up into the market cycle top in Q4
Bear Market– Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) August 11, 2025
Takeaway for Investors
It appears that the old halving cycle is no longer the sole driver of Bitcoin’s market moves, but it hasn’t completely vanished either. Supply shocks are less significant, and macroeconomic conditions and institutional demand now reign supreme. 🏦
For long-term investors, the focus should shift to key fundamentals such as ETF inflows, regulation, and broader economic trends. After all, who doesn’t love a good trend? 📊
Read More
- Gold Rate Forecast
- Wrestler Marcus “Buff” Bagwell Undergoes Leg Amputation
- PS5’s ChinaJoy Booth Needs to Be Seen to Be Believed
- Microsoft is on track to become the second $4 trillion company by market cap, following NVIDIA — and mass layoffs
- AI-powered malware eludes Microsoft Defender’s security checks 8% of the time — with just 3 months of training and “reinforcement learning” for around $1,600
- xAI’s $300/month Grok 4, billed as a “maximally truth-seeking AI” — seemingly solicits Elon Musk’s opinion on controversial topics
- Anime’s Greatest Summer 2024 Shonen Hit Drops New Look Ahead of Season 2
- Lewis Capaldi Details “Mental Episode” That Led to Him “Convulsing”
- President Trump: “What the hell is NVIDIA? I’ve never heard of it before” — but is it right to dunk on him?
- Powell’s Exit? A Financial Drama! 🎭
2025-08-11 15:39