- Over $280 million worth of tokens are set to be unlocked.
Will ARB, APT, and OP’s prices fall further?
As an experienced analyst, I believe that the upcoming token unlocks could significantly impact the prices of ARB, APT, and OP. Based on historical data from recent unlocks, we have seen varied price performances before and after the events. However, Ethereum L2s like ARB and Optimism have faced oversupply issues during previous unlocks, which has led to significant price declines.
In the cryptocurrency realm, particularly the altcoin segment, unpredictable price swings may ensue due to scheduled token releases in July.
Based on AMBCrypto’s analysis, approximately $280 million in cryptocurrencies are set to be released over the next week. Among these, Arbitrum [ARB] and Aptos [APT] hold the largest portions in the release calendar.
On July 12th, Aptos is prepared to release tokens valued at over $70 million. Simultaneously, ARB will make available tokens worth approximately $66.6 million on July 15th. Subsequently, Optimism (OP) is slated to unveil tokens valued at around $54 million on July 30th.
Within the next fortnight, AVAX tokens from Avalanche will become available on the market, releasing a total value of $245 million.
Will the token unlocks dent the altcoin market?
According to AMBCrypto’s assessment, the token prices showed diverse patterns prior and post the scheduled unlocks in June.
After receiving a mid-June unlock worth $105 million, ARB underperformed significantly among other projects, according to X, formerly known as Twitter, user DeFi Scholar’s observation.
“Effect on the token [ARB]: Moved from 0.92 on the 16th to 0.77 (20% dip).”
During the assessment, it was noted that the overall market mood significantly influenced ARB‘s performance during unlocks. Nevertheless, Ethereum L2s (Layer 2 solutions) experienced substantial drops in value even in more favorable market situations.
A Deribit report published in early June revealed that poor showings by Ethereum Layer 2 solutions such as ARB and Optimism could be attributed to an excessive supply released through unlocks.
For perspective, ARB has erased all its 2024 gains and has been below $1 since early June.
As a researcher studying the cryptocurrency market, I can tell you that the upcoming release of $66 million in token supply for ARB poses a significant challenge. Reaching and surpassing the downtrend line at $0.76 will be difficult under these circumstances.
As an analyst, I’ve observed that Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) groups suffered substantial setbacks following recent market downturns. Despite this, APT has shown resilience and rebounded strongly from the $5 mark. Potentially, it could target gains at $7 or even revisit its previous support level above $7.5. However, I must caution that the unlocking schedule may introduce additional complexities to the situation.
Significantly, APT experienced a 20% decrease in value following the release of over $100 million in tokens in June. This trend may continue if Bitcoin (BTC) fails to regain its footing and remain above the $60,000 mark.
As a market analyst, I’d rephrase that statement as follows: If Bitcoin’s bearish trend gives way to a bullish one, the potential influence of the upcoming BTC unlocks on altcoin prices might not be as significant.
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2024-07-11 21:11