As a seasoned analyst with a knack for deciphering the intricacies of global politics and financial markets, I find Kalshi’s expansion into international election betting fascinating. With my extensive background in data analysis and market trends, I can confidently say that this move is not only strategically sound but also potentially groundbreaking.
The prediction marketplace, Kalshi, now offers bets on international election results due to a surge in political wagers leading up to the U.S. presidential election in November, expanding beyond just U.S. contests.
The agreements encompass various national competitions taking place across diverse nations, including Australia and Ecuador, as indicated by disclosures made to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in their regulatory filings.
Additionally, Kalshi introduced markets for races in 2025 taking place in Canada and Ireland, as indicated in the filings. This expansion broadens Kalshi’s current collection of betting markets related to elections, which already includes over a dozen contracts linked to the upcoming US federal election results.
Since its listing on October 7th, Kalshi’s primary market, “Who will win the Presidential election?”, has amassed a total betting volume of approximately $52 million, as per information on Kalshi’s official website.
On October 7th, following a historic court victory in September, Kalshi made available event contracts for wagering on the results of the upcoming U.S. elections, listing these opportunities for betting.
For the very first time, an election prediction market was given approval to function within the United States. This opens up opportunities for other entities to join, like Web3 platforms such as Polymarket.
As of October 23rd, it’s estimated that approximately $2.3 billion is at stake based on the results of the November US Presidential Election, as per information from their official site (Polymarket).
Approximately 75 nations around the globe are set to conduct elections in 2024, encompassing significant economic powers within the European Union, India, and Russia, based on information gathered by Maps Interlude.
Other countries, such as Australia, Canada, Ecuador, and Ireland, are holding elections in 2025.
The CFTC said election prediction markets such as Kalshi threaten the integrity of elections, but industry analysts say they often capture public sentiment more accurately than polls.
In response to allegations made by the Commission, Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University, stated in a letter submitted last August, that event contract markets are a beneficial resource for which there is no clear proof of extensive manipulation or widespread misuse for malicious activities as claimed.
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2024-10-23 18:18