- Trump’s prediction market odds surged after his pro-crypto campaign and public appearances.
- Kalshi’s data reflects Trump’s strong position as the election approaches.
As a seasoned crypto investor with a keen eye for market trends and a knack for deciphering political subtext, I must say that the recent surge in Trump’s prediction market odds is nothing short of intriguing. The man has always been a wild card, and his pro-crypto stance, coupled with his ability to captivate the masses, makes him an interesting bet indeed.
With the U.S. presidential election approaching rapidly, competition between candidates is heating up as prediction market trends indicate noticeable shifts.
Trump outpaces Harris
Previously elected U.S. President Donald Trump currently holds the top position on popular prediction marketplaces such as Polymarket and Kalshi, with his predicted likelihood of victory exceeding 60% in recent assessments.
Polymarket data now reflects a notable 26.5-point gap between Trump and Harris.
This marks a jump from earlier predictions, which saw Trump at 61.3%.
His popularity apparently surged following his well-known visit to a McDonald’s in Pennsylvania, a crucial election state where he has significant backing.
At this moment’s tally, Polymarket’s data shows Donald Trump ahead with about 64.1% of the votes, whereas Kamala Harris lags slightly behind at approximately 35.9%.
Conversely, Kalshi reports Trump at 60% and Harris at 40%.
This situation arises primarily due to Trump’s consistent support for cryptocurrencies, a stance he has maintained since the start.
Initially, I had my candidate leading the pack, but it wasn’t until the first presidential debate that their odds in the prediction markets began to dip, even though they had been in front since the start.
All about the Kalshi prediction platform
For those not in the know, Kalshi, a fresh face in the field of election predictions, has experienced impressive growth since it introduced its contracts in October, following a decision in its favor by a court against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Regardless of its tardy beginning, the platform Kalshi has managed to generate over $30 million in trading volume for its main election contract, demonstrating strong momentum.
Although Polymarket has surpassed Kalshi in early success, having garnered approximately $40 million in its initial month of presidential betting and now standing at over $2 billion, Kalshi’s status as a regulated platform provides it with a clear advantage. This is because it chose to enter the market only after securing a legal victory.
However, some critics, such as Mark Cuban, suggest that foreign investments may distort the betting odds, as U.S. citizens are officially barred from participating on these platforms.
He said,
Based on what we see, it appears that a majority of funds flowing into Polymarket are from abroad. Therefore, it doesn’t seem to suggest anything significant.
Kalshi vs Polymarket
Yet, it’s important to note that Kalshi’s platform shows Republican nominee Trump with a 14-point lead over Democratic contender Harris, but unlike its competitor Polymarket, Kalshi only allows U.S. nationals and permanent residents to participate, due to strict regulatory compliance.
Contrarily, Polymarket allows US traders to be barred from participation, but it doesn’t have the rigorous verification system that Kalshi employs. Instead, it facilitates wagers based on cryptocurrencies.
Although some initially worried that Kalshi’s regulatory standing could be a drawback, it has instead provided protection against allegations of external meddling and manipulation, an issue that Polymarket has encountered.
In a series of posts on X (previously known as Twitter), co-founder Tarek Mansour highlighted this difference, stressing its importance.
As expected, he put it best when he concluded,
Media assertion: A small number of whales are boosting Trump’s chances, according to reports. Actuality: The average wager on Kamala Harris is GREATER than the average wager on Donald Trump. Trump’s chances aren’t being inflated by a handful of people; rather, it’s the other way around.
Read More
- DYM PREDICTION. DYM cryptocurrency
- ZK PREDICTION. ZK cryptocurrency
- CYBER PREDICTION. CYBER cryptocurrency
- JASMY PREDICTION. JASMY cryptocurrency
- POPCAT PREDICTION. POPCAT cryptocurrency
- Top gainers and losers
- SKEY PREDICTION. SKEY cryptocurrency
- TURBO PREDICTION. TURBO cryptocurrency
- BTC PREDICTION. BTC cryptocurrency
- BAT PREDICTION. BAT cryptocurrency
2024-10-24 11:04