As a seasoned researcher with a keen interest in the intersection of finance and politics, I find the emergence of prediction marketplaces like Kalshi and Polymarket to be an intriguing development. Having followed the evolution of these platforms since their inception, it’s fascinating to witness how they are reshaping the way we perceive and predict political outcomes.
Since winning a significant legal battle in September, prediction marketplace Kalshi has verified over a dozen contracts related to U.S. political events, as indicated by regulatory documents examined by CryptoMoon.
In simple terms, these contracts – referred to as “winner-takes-all” financial derivatives called binary options – represent the initial instances in the U.S. that allow traders to wager on the results of elections.
They address everything from the November US presidential election to Senate races, cabinet appointments, and even New York City Mayor Eric Adams’s possible resignation.
Since its launch on October 7th, Kalshi’s main market, which asks “Who will win the Presidential election?”, has amassed a total of $14 million in bets placed so far, as per information on Kalshi’s official site.
Despite being a U.S.-regulated platform, Kalshi is currently outpaced by Polymarket, a prediction marketplace that operates on the Polygon network and functions in a decentralized manner.
Approximately $2 billion worth of wagers related to the U.S. presidential election have been facilitated by Polymarket, as per their own site.
2020 saw the debut of Polymarket, which gained significant attention in 2024 as a platform offering permissionless betting opportunities related to U.S. election results.
In November 2023, Kalshi filed a lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) – the agency responsible for overseeing derivatives in the United States – because they attempted to prevent Kalshi from offering contracts linked to political events.
Kalshi prevailed in a September court ruling and again on Oct. 2, when a federal appeals court affirmed Kalshi’s September win.
According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), platforms like Kalshi that deal with predicting elections pose a risk to the authenticity of elections. However, experts in the field argue that these prediction markets tend to reflect the general public’s opinion more precisely than traditional polls do.
In a comment letter to the CFTC submitted in August, Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University, stated that event contract markets are a beneficial resource for which there’s no proof of substantial manipulation or widespread malicious usage as claimed by the Commission.
In August, the financial data and news service Bloomberg LP incorporated Polymarket’s election probability information into its Terminal.
Bloomberg Terminal is widely recognized as the top choice among global financial institutions for accessing financial data. Estimates suggest that it accounts for around a third of the entire financial data services market, based on information from Wall Street Prep.
Currently, according to Kalshi’s predictions as of October 16th, Donald Trump has a 55% chance of being elected, while Kamala Harris, his Democratic opponent, has a 45% chance.
On Polymarket, the bettors’ convictions about Donald Trump are stronger compared to those of Kamala Harris, with estimated chances of around 58% for Trump and only about 41% for Harris.
In addition to likely scenarios, Polymarket encompasses less common possibilities too, like a third-party contender emerging victorious in November’s election.
Read More
- DYM PREDICTION. DYM cryptocurrency
- ZK PREDICTION. ZK cryptocurrency
- CYBER PREDICTION. CYBER cryptocurrency
- JASMY PREDICTION. JASMY cryptocurrency
- POPCAT PREDICTION. POPCAT cryptocurrency
- SKEY PREDICTION. SKEY cryptocurrency
- TURBO PREDICTION. TURBO cryptocurrency
- Top gainers and losers
- BNB PREDICTION. BNB cryptocurrency
- XRP PREDICTION. XRP cryptocurrency
2024-10-16 22:49