As a seasoned analyst with years of experience in financial markets and politics, I find the recent surge of political betting platforms fascinating. The U.S. presidential election is a significant event, and it’s intriguing to see how these platforms are leveraging the interest around it.
In a last-minute attempt to attract users, prediction platform Kalshi has introduced additional political betting markets before the November 3rd U.S. presidential election.
As a keen crypto investor, I’ve noticed that my investments are linked to a variety of real-world events. For instance, these events could range from the results of an Ohio referendum to the state declared as the last one in the presidential race by the Associated Press (AP), based on documents filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed that since October 31st, Kalshi has introduced over two dozen contracts primarily focused on the forthcoming U.S. elections, as evidenced by the data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Kalshi’s event contracts – these are unique financial derivatives called binary options in the U.S., allowing traders to place wagers on various outcomes, such as political elections, like the contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican nominee Donald Trump.
Since its launch on October 7th, Kalshi’s main market, concerning who will win the Presidential election, has amassed a total betting volume of approximately $144 million, as per the information on Kalshi’s official website.
In October, Kalshi’s predictions strongly suggested that Trump had a high likelihood of winning, with chances estimated to be close to 65%. However, over the last two days, there has been a noticeable decrease in this difference.
As per Kalshi’s latest data, it appears that Donald Trump stands a 56% likelihood of securing the presidency compared to Kamala Harris who has a 44% chance, as of November 1st.
Kalshi continues to trail behind Polymarket, a futuristic betting platform designed for the blockchain ecosystem, which operates on the Polygon network.
Approximately $2.9 billion is at stake based on the results of the November presidential election, as indicated by their website data, on Polymarket.
Polygon’s bettors are generally more bullish on Trump and put his odds at around 61% as of Nov. 1.
On October 28th, Kalshi began accepting deposits in the widely used stablecoin, US Dollar Coin (USDC), with the aim of attracting more users who are already familiar with the cryptocurrency market.
Now, more political betting platforms are joining the fray.
Starting October 28th, Robinhood, a popular platform for both cryptocurrency and stock trading, made available election outcome bets to some of its users.
Regulatory bodies in the U.S. have expressed concerns that platforms like Kalshi, which deal with election predictions, could potentially undermine the authenticity of elections. However, experts within the industry argue that these prediction markets frequently reflect the general opinion of the public more precisely than traditional polls do.
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2024-11-01 22:27