As a seasoned crypto investor with a knack for political events and a keen eye for potential opportunities, I find the recent surge of prediction marketplaces like Kalshi quite intriguing. Having closely followed the political betting scene during the U.S. elections, I can’t help but admire the resilience and innovation these platforms have shown.
In an effort to maintain user interest following the November 5th Presidential election, prediction marketplace Kalshi has introduced additional markets where users can wager on U.S. political events.
As a crypto investor, I’ve come across some unique trading opportunities that delve into the future of our political landscape. According to official documents filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), these contracts encompass a variety of potential outcomes, such as who President-elect Donald Trump will appoint to his administration and whether he could potentially face impeachment during his presidency.
People rushed to political forecasting websites before the U.S. elections, and it’s been estimated that around $4 billion were wagered in relation to the presidential contest, just prior to Election Day on November 5th, as per a study by CryptoMoon.
As a crypto investor, I’ve found that when it comes to placing bets, particularly on political events like the presidential election, Polymarket has been my go-to platform. According to their own website, an impressive $3.3 billion in betting volume was handled by Polymarket for this specific event.
However, Kalshi, an American derivatives trading platform, experienced rapid growth after it introduced political event contracts on October 7, following a significant legal victory.
The trading volume for betting on the U.S. presidential election through its main platform had reached over $250 million by November 5th.
Starting October 28th, I found myself intrigued by Kalshi’s move to accept deposits in US Dollar Coin (USDC), a widely recognized stablecoin. It seems they are aiming to attract crypto enthusiasts like me.
The prediction marketplace has also added contracts for betting on outcomes of elections outside of the US. They include bets on 2025 races in Canada and Ireland, CFTC filings showed.
Back in September, I found myself victorious in a legal battle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), who had initially decided not to allow my company, Kalshi, to list political event contracts. The lawsuit was a challenge to their decision, and thankfully, we came out on top.
For the very first time, an election prediction market was given approval to function within the U.S., opening up a path for other similar platforms to join the competition.
On October 28th, Robinhood, a cryptocurrency and stock trading platform, rolled out options for selected users to wager on the final result of the U.S. Presidential Election.
Interactive Brokers also launched election betting markets in October.
According to the CFTC, the presiding judge in Kalshi’s lawsuit made mistakes in every step of the process when they permitted the platform to offer and trade election probabilities.
The agency said prediction markets such as Kalshi threaten the integrity of elections, but industry analysts say they often capture public sentiment more accurately than polls.
Betting platforms like Kalshi frequently gave better chances for a Trump victory in political wagers.
During November 5th on the platform Kalshi, predictions for Trump’s victory were roughly 58%. However, after the polls closed, Harris acknowledged Trump as the president-elect on November 6th.
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2024-11-07 19:51