As someone who has been closely following and participating in the cryptocurrency market for several years now, I find myself intrigued by the recent developments. The breakout from the descending broadening wedge, as some analysts have pointed out, seems to be a promising sign for Bitcoin’s price action. If history repeats itself, we might just be witnessing the beginning of a new all-time high (ATH).
As “Uptober” comes to an end, Bitcoin (BTC) experiences a bullish week, leading many traders to anticipate further increases in its market value.
- Analysis predicts a “very volatile” monthly close for BTC/USD, with the CME futures gap acting as a possible downside target around $67,000.
- An onslaught of US macro data precedes the crunch election and Fed rate meeting next week.
- Bitcoin is finally breaking loose from a downward-sloping channel in place practically since March’s all-time highs after a “most bullish” weekly close.
- US Bitcoin ownership is on the up — a key ingredient in any long-term bull market.
- Whales remain committed to increasing exposure while retail interest stays unimpressive — but this has historically benefitted BTC price strength, data shows.
Golden cross sets bullish tone for BTC price
At the end of the week, Bitcoin was trading slightly under $68,000, and although it didn’t reach its October high, enthusiasts remain determined as the month-end approaches.
According to data from both CryptoMoon Markets Pro and TradingView, Bitcoin’s price recovery seems robust as it carries on during the initial Asian trading hours of the current week.
A gap in the CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market could indicate possible retracement points if the current momentum were to shift temporarily.
In simpler terms, Daan Crypto Trades predicts that the upcoming week and closing days of this month could be quite unpredictable, as he expressed in a recent social media update about the cryptocurrency market. He also pointed out that there’s an open gap on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) at the price point of $67,000.
“November itself is bound to make for a lot of action as well.”
As the United States Presidential Election draws closer (only about a week away), investors should brace themselves for potential market turbulence in cryptocurrencies and high-risk assets.
On larger time scales, some analysts observe that the Bitcoin-to-U.S. Dollar (BTC/USD) pair is still holding steady below its previous record peak in March of around $73,800.
As we continue to strengthen our position, it should provide us with the required fluctuations to surpass the 70k resistance level, according to fellow trader Roman, speaking to his X subscribers.
“Sideways is boring but what follows will begin a new macro uptrend. 70k is the level we must break to leave this 7 month range.”
Meanwhile, crypto investor and expert, Satoshi Stacker, noticed a significant event unfolding on the chart: a “golden cross” scenario was taking place. This occurs when the short-term moving average (50 days) starts to climb over the long-term moving average (200 days).
He pointed out that the last time an event like this occurred (approximately one year back), Bitcoin more than doubled its value within the subsequent five months.
A repeat would see BTC/USD reach six figures for the first time in history during Q1 2025.
US macro data comes thick and fast pre-Election
Following a couple of rather tranquil fortnights, significant economic data from the U.S. is resurfacing once more – and this reappearance often brings heightened chances for fluctuations in risky investments.
In the upcoming days, we’ll see updates on the Quarterly GDP, significant tech company earnings, employment-related data such as nonfarm payrolls and unemployment figures, along with the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index.
The timing of the data prints could hardly be more influential — next week holds both the US Presidential Election and the Fed’s next meeting to decide interest rate policy.
In simple terms, these two occurrences are considered significant factors influencing the direction of risky assets such as cryptocurrency, and given that U.S. stocks have reached unprecedented heights, the situation carries high importance or potential impact.
The upcoming week signals the start of a hectic November, as highlighted in part of The Kobeissi Letter’s recent market analysis.
According to well-known trader CrypNuevo, the last week of October was “extremely challenging” for trading activities.
Updating X followers on his Bitcoin trading plans, he suggested that downside wicks would be suitable buying opportunities, but that the situation hinged on macro.
He proposed an idea, but keep in mind that unexpected financial results or NFP data could instantly render it incorrect.
According to QCP Capital, it would require significant shifts in the macroeconomic data for markets to alter their current outlook on the Federal Reserve’s reaction.
According to the most recent information from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, there is a strong likelihood that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates by 0.25% during their meeting on November 7th.
At present, there’s a 95.1% likelihood for a 0.25% reduction in interest rates in November, according to the latest market predictions, which suggests that this move is widely expected and may not come as a shock.
Bitcoin nails “most bullish” weekly close
Approximately $67,940 on Bitstamp, the BTC/USD pair concluded its weekly run with what’s considered the “most optimistic” or “most favorable” possible ending.
Last week, well-known trader and analyst Rekt Capital proposed that a closing price of around $66,300 could be optimistic, yet the market eventually established a level poised to serve as the foundation for potential future growth.
Understanding the importance of the weekly closing price is more clear when you consider Bitcoin’s price trends since it reached its all-time high in March.
After that point, the BTC/USD pair has been moving along a channel with a general downward slope, which is known for being tough to break out of decisively. However, it now seems like that challenging barrier may have been breached.
In just a few hours, Bitcoin could verify a fresh bullish weekly candle closing, according to Rekt Capital’s analysis, as depicted by the accompanying chart showing the trend.
“Bitcoin is on the cusp of confirming a successful post-breakout retest from the Channel (black).”
Other individuals arrived at comparable findings, as trading platform TrendSpider announced its readiness for operation following market closure.
In part of his recent posts, the well-known trader Moustache stated that it appears the price movement following the breakdown from the descending broadening wedge pattern has been tested to perfection.
“Next target: New ATH.”
US bitcoin ownership stages key rebound
US entities are now accumulating Bitcoin for the first time since its peak in March, marking an uptick in their holdings.
By examining Bitcoin holdings in banks, investment funds, and digital exchanges, CryptoQuant found similarities with the early stages of a bull market that began in 2023, as suggested by their on-chain analysis.
According to a post by contributor Crypto Sunmoon on October 28th in their Quicktake blog, the proportion of Bitcoin owned by American entities (such as exchanges, banks, and funds) has resumed its increase.
“The strong bull run in late 2023 began with an increase in the percentage of bitcoin held by US entities. The sustained sideways movement in the bitcoin price since March of this year began with a decrease in the percentage of bitcoin held by US entities.”
A chart alongside presented the 100-day moving average of Bitcoin ownership by Americans versus other nations, using an exponential calculation.
Whales consciously stack sats
Earlier, CryptoMoon noticed indications that retail involvement was gradually resuming following a prolonged lull.
Despite what’s commonly popular, as seen by analyzing Google search trends, it’s still hovering close to its lowest points over the past five years.
The same cannot be said of Bitcoin whales’ approach to the current market.
Among major Bitcoin investors, there’s a strong sense of optimism prevailing, which might shift when the market reaches a specific price level. However, for now, the trend indicates continuous buying or accumulation without any interruptions.
In a recent post on October 25th, research firm Santiment noted that as major players in cryptocurrency accumulate even more coins, typically these actions result in positive price movements or ‘bullish’ market trends.
According to Santiment’s analysis, there has been a rise of approximately 1.9% over the last fortnight in the quantity of whale entities, which are wallets containing 100 Bitcoins or more.
At the same time, sub-100 BTC wallet numbers dropped by more than 20,000, or 0.1% of the total.
Based on a decrease in retail activity, CryptoQuant arrived at comparable findings regarding potential effects on Bitcoin’s price movements.
Last week, it was shared with approximately X followers that on September 21st, the daily transfer amount made by retail investors reached $326 million – a figure not seen since at least 2020 for daily transfers.
“Historically, low retail activity often precedes Bitcoin price rallies.”
Read More
- GOAT PREDICTION. GOAT cryptocurrency
- CYBER PREDICTION. CYBER cryptocurrency
- LDO PREDICTION. LDO cryptocurrency
- JASMY PREDICTION. JASMY cryptocurrency
- DOP/USD
- BRN/USD
- CHAT/USD
- DEXE PREDICTION. DEXE cryptocurrency
- WELL PREDICTION. WELL cryptocurrency
- Yellowjackets Season 3 Reveals First Cast Photos and One of Them is Devastating
2024-10-28 13:38