As a huge movie fan, I usually get a pretty good idea of who’s going to win at the Oscars before the night even arrives. But this year feels different – it’s genuinely unpredictable, and that’s really exciting! Most of the big categories are still wide open, which makes me even more eager to tune in.
While Jessie Buckley is the likely winner for Best Actress, most other major awards are still very competitive. The races for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress, in particular, are expected to be incredibly close.
So, who’s expected to win the Oscars this Sunday? We’ve analyzed the top categories, looked at the nominees, and are sharing our predictions for who will likely take home the awards.
Read on for our Oscars 2026 predictions.
What will win and should win best picture?
The Oscars best-picture race has become predictable and tiresome in recent years. With so many people closely tracking and predicting the outcome over the six-to-nine-month awards season, the excitement often fades long before the final ceremony in February or March.
Occasionally, a film manages a surprising victory, overturning what seemed like a certain outcome. Recent examples include Anora, CODA, and Parasite, which all gained strong momentum and appeared destined to win with only a few weeks left in voting. Nine years ago, Moonlight also pulled off a stunning upset, winning on the night of the awards ceremony itself.
This year, “One Battle After Another” has become a dominant force – perhaps even frustrating some of its biggest fans – much like previous hits such as “Oppenheimer,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “Nomadland,” and “The Shape of Water.” But that reign is now being challenged.
Just two weeks before the Oscars, the recent Actor Awards (formerly the SAG Awards) offered some unexpected results, slowing down the momentum of the film One Battle After Another. This shift could potentially allow another movie to become the frontrunner.
When One Battle After Another was released in September, critics loved it, and that positive response has continued. Even debates online about the film’s politics and portrayal of Black women haven’t significantly changed that overwhelmingly positive reception.
Beyond being a critically acclaimed film with a budget of over $130 million, this is Paul Thomas Anderson’s most ambitious project to date. Anderson is a highly respected director known for modern classics like Boogie Nights, Magnolia, There Will Be Blood, Phantom Thread, Inherent Vice, and Licorice Pizza, earning him 11 previous Oscar nominations for his work as a writer, director, and producer. (His film The Master received three acting nominations in 2012, but he wasn’t personally nominated.) Like Christopher Nolan with Oppenheimer, Anderson is a celebrated and influential filmmaker widely expected to finally win an Oscar.
As a huge movie fan, I was pretty excited about One Battle getting thirteen Oscar nominations – that’s a big deal usually! But honestly, this year it felt a little lost in the buzz. Sinners just completely blew everyone away, racking up a record-breaking sixteen nominations. It totally dominated the morning’s announcements.
Both films, made by Warner Bros., are fast-paced and action-packed, but they also delve into serious themes. They balance thrilling action with quieter, more emotional moments, all to explore powerful ideas about race, Black identity in America, and the harmful effects of systemic racism.
Both films are well-made, but importantly, they address current issues in a way that’s easy for a broad audience to enjoy. This makes them particularly attractive to Academy voters who want to highlight the strength and relevance of the film industry.
The strength of these films, combined with the long-awaited recognition for both directors – Wes Anderson, a celebrated veteran, and Ryan Coogler, who could be the first African-American to win an Oscar for Best Director after 98 years – is why they’ve consistently outperformed early frontrunners like Hamnet and Frankenstein. Those films, despite receiving eight and nine nominations respectively, haven’t generated the same level of excitement or support.
Even though both Sentimental Value and Marty Supreme received nine nominations each – the same as the leading best picture and director contenders – neither film has generated the same level of buzz. The Academy recently honored a smaller, independent film (Anora), so voters might be ready to recognize a more mainstream, large-scale production this year.
Between these two strong contenders, One Battle has consistently led throughout the awards season and is still expected to win based on current data. Wins from key industry groups like the Directors and Producers guilds demonstrate its popularity within the US film community, and its success at the BAFTAs – even beating the British favorite Hamnet for best film – suggests it has strong support from international voters who also vote for the American Academy Awards.
Actors represent over 12% of the Academy voters, and a significant number of them belong to the Screen Actors Guild. This group recently honored ‘Sinners’ with its highest award – best cast, surpassing the ensemble from ‘One Battle’ – and notably, surprisingly awarded Michael B. Jordan best actor over the frontrunner, Timothée Chalamet.
While winning BAFTA or Producers Guild awards, or even assembling a strong cast, doesn’t guarantee an Oscar, it’s also true that those awards haven’t always accurately predicted the Best Picture winner. In fact, over the past decade, the Oscar for Best Picture and Best Director haven’t always gone to the same film – famously seen during the mix-up at the Moonlight/La La Land ceremony a few years ago.
Despite still being on track to potentially become one of the most-losing films in Oscar history (it would need to win six awards to avoid this), “Sinners” now has a surprisingly good chance of winning Best Picture, even as Paul Thomas Anderson is favored to win the Best Director award. – Calum Baker
Our predicted winner: Sinners
Who will win and should win best actress?
This year’s best actress Oscar nominations are incredibly competitive, with many deserving candidates. It’s surprising Amanda Seyfried didn’t receive a nomination, but the field is full of powerful performances – from roles portraying grieving mothers and complex family dynamics to even potentially otherworldly characters.
Jessie Buckley is currently the favorite to win, and for good reason. The Irish actress has been nominated twice now, including for her performance in the 2021 film The Lost Daughter, and is receiving widespread praise for her portrayal of Agnes, Shakespeare’s wife, in Chloé Zhao’s film adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s novel, Hamnet.
Buckley delivers a powerfully emotional and heartbreaking performance as a woman facing immense tragedy – the kind the Academy often rewards. Having already won the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice Award, BAFTA, and the Actor Award, she’s almost guaranteed to win an Oscar, as no lead actress has ever swept those awards and not won the Oscar.
Rose Byrne might finally get some recognition with her first ever nomination after a thirty-year career. She delivers a standout performance in “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You,” playing Linda, a woman struggling with immense pressure from a sick daughter, an absent husband, and a difficult job, pushing her to the brink.
You can really feel Byrne’s nervousness throughout the entire film, largely thanks to the tight, close-up shots that let you experience everything her character is feeling. She’s both powerful and relatable, and brings a surprising amount of humor to the role. If Buckley doesn’t win, Byrne is a strong contender, especially after winning a Golden Globe earlier this season.
Emma Stone is back in the running for an award, and it feels like she’s nominated almost every year. This time, it’s her fifth nomination, and many consider it one of her most complex roles yet. In the film ‘Bugonia,’ she plays Michelle Fuller, the CEO of a pharmaceutical company who might actually be an alien. Stone’s performance is full of subtle layers that become even more apparent on a second viewing. While she likely won’t win this year—possibly because her campaign hasn’t been very high-profile—Stone already has two Oscars, so she may not be as focused on adding another one to her collection.
I was honestly surprised to see Kate Hudson nominated for her role in Song Sung Blue! She was great as Claire Cartwright – really charismatic and heartbreaking – and a lot of people agreed she was the best part of the movie. But it felt like a bit of an unexpected pick, and social media blew up with debate! So many felt that Amanda Seyfried in The Testament of Ann Lee, Jennifer Lawrence in Die My Love, or even Chase Infiniti’s amazing debut in One Battle After Another were just as good, if not better. Still, Kate made it into the nominations, which is fantastic for her, even if she’s not considered a frontrunner to win.
Renate Reinsve’s nomination was widely expected, and deservedly so. Her performance as Nora Borg in ‘Sentimental Value’ is subtle, deeply moving, and completely engrossing, realistically portraying complicated family dynamics. One scene, shared with Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, is particularly memorable and touching. While Reinsve may not win – the Academy often prefers more dramatic performances – her work is sure to be remembered long after the awards season ends. – Chezelle Bingham
Our predicted winner: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
Who will win and should win best actor?
I really thought Timothée Chalamet was a shoo-in for Best Actor. A year ago, if he’d lost to Adrien Brody, everyone would have said he’d get it next time – it felt like a sure thing. It genuinely seemed like his moment was right around the corner.
As a total cinema fan, I was blown away by ‘Marty Supreme’ last December, and it really launched Timothée Chalamet into another stratosphere. The Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe wins were fantastic, but then he landed his third Oscar nomination in January – making him the youngest actor since Marlon Brando to achieve that! Honestly, even with DiCaprio in the mix, all signs pointed to Chalamet winning. It felt like his victory was pretty much guaranteed this year.
For the past couple of weeks, though, things have changed. While Ethan Hawke and Wagner Moura, another highly-regarded nominee, hadn’t posed much of a challenge to Timothée Chalamet (even with Moura’s Golden Globe win), Michael B. Jordan, from the film Sinners, has become a serious competitor.
Robert Aramayo won the BAFTA award for best actor for his role in the Scottish drama, I Swear. While this win might not significantly affect the Oscars, his performance in the vampire horror series Sinners has gained a lot of attention recently. Last week, Sinners dominated the Actor Awards, and Jordan eclipsed Chalamet, making predictions about the awards even more uncertain.
Michael B. Jordan’s captivating portrayal of twin brothers in Ryan Coogler’s film is a major reason for its success. If he wins an Oscar, he’d be the first actor since 1965 to be honored for two roles within the same movie. Interestingly, a win for Jordan would also break a 22-year streak – he’d be the first best actor winner since 2004 to win without first receiving a BAFTA or a Screen Actors Guild Award, something this year’s likely supporting actor winner, Sean Penn, already achieved.
Leonardo DiCaprio’s film, while well-received, might be considered too lighthearted by voters compared to the other contenders. The Academy often favors performances filled with pain and struggle, and DiCaprio’s role doesn’t quite fit that mold. Timothée Chalamet’s performance is also relatively upbeat, though it’s visually impressive and shares similarities with winning performances from previous years. Notably, the emotional final scene echoes the poignant ending of his earlier film, Call Me by Your Name.
With the Oscars approaching this Sunday at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, the race for Best Actor is becoming increasingly unpredictable. While Cillian Murphy is still the frontrunner, his lead is shrinking – it’s a much closer competition than many expected. – Max Copeman
Our predicted winner: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
Who will win and should win best supporting actor?
This year at the Oscars, the supporting actor category is unique: all the nominees also appeared in films nominated for Best Picture. The nominees include two actors from Paul Thomas Anderson’s film, and one each from ‘Sinners,’ ‘Sentimental Value,’ and ‘Frankenstein.’ Throughout the awards season, the lead contender in this category has changed hands several times, making it a very competitive race.
As of today, Sean Penn, a two-time Oscar winner, is the frontrunner to win Best Actor for his role as the villainous Colonel Lockjaw in “One Battle After Another.” He recently won at both the BAFTA Film Awards and the Actor Awards, and the film itself is performing very well, making him a strong contender and a likely winner.
Wow, Penn is absolutely terrifying in Lockjaw! He really becomes this truly awful villain – it’s not just acting, it’s a full physical transformation. He’s creepy, pathetic, and you can practically feel his disturbing desires and how insecure he is. Honestly, he’s the kind of villain who deserves to be mentioned alongside some of the greats – I’m thinking of Javier Bardem as Anton Chigurh and Heath Ledger’s Joker. He’s that memorable, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins an award for this performance!
For a good portion of the awards season, Benicio del Toro, who plays a likable karate teacher turned community activist in ‘One Battle,’ seemed like Sean Penn’s main competitor. Del Toro received positive attention from many critics groups, but hasn’t won any of the bigger, more important awards. Now, it appears unlikely he’ll repeat his win from 25 years ago for the film ‘Traffic’.
Currently, Stellan Skarsgård seems like the only actor who could challenge Penn as the frontrunner, thanks to his performance as film director Gustav Borg in Sentimental Value. Many viewers see his role as a leading one, which might typically disqualify him for this category, but Kieran Culkin won last year despite similar concerns. Skarsgård, a respected actor with a long career in both independent and mainstream films, is a strong contender and many would be happy to see him finally recognized with an award for what’s being described as one of his most complex and nuanced performances. He’s already won a Golden Globe for the role.
I was really excited about Jacob Elordi after he won at the Critics Choice Awards – it felt like a big boost for him. He gave such a surprisingly gentle and nuanced performance as the Creature, which is a role so many actors have taken on before, and it was getting a lot of buzz. But honestly, the momentum hasn’t really continued, and right now it doesn’t look like he’s going to win. Still, I have a feeling his time will come soon – he’s definitely one to watch.
That brings us to Delroy Lindo. The experienced actor, originally from London, was a bit of a surprise nominee, not because his powerful and heartbreaking performance as Delta Slim in ‘Sinners’ didn’t deserve recognition, but because he hadn’t been included on many other pre-Oscar lists. Lindo is a consistently excellent actor who many believe is long overdue for an Oscar, and while he’s still considered a long shot, most would agree his charming and moving portrayal of the older harmonica player would be a fantastic choice for a win.
This awards season has shown us that it’s risky to underestimate “Sinners.” The film has a strong and dedicated following, which could give actor Lindo a real chance at winning. – Patrick Cremona
Our predicted winner: Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
Who will win and should win best supporting actress?
The best supporting actress category is arguably the most exciting race to watch at this year’s Oscars.
The nominations this year highlight five outstanding films from 2025. Horror fans will be pleased to see two nominations for ‘Sinners and Weapons,’ while BAFTA winner ‘Sentimental Value’ received two nods as well. ‘One Battle After Another,’ already a celebrated film, also earned a nomination.
Right now, Wunmi Mosaku is looking like the likely winner after receiving a BAFTA award. However, Teyana Taylor and Amy Madigan have also won major awards – a Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice award, respectively – and are strong contenders who could challenge her.
It’s still anyone’s guess who will win, but looking at past awards shows, the BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, and Golden Globes winners for best supporting actress have differed this way only eight times. And when they have, the BAFTA winner usually went on to win the Oscar most recently.
In 2021, several actresses received major awards for their work. Jodie Foster won a Golden Globe for The Mauritanian, Maria Bakalova took home a Critics’ Choice award for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, and Youn Yuh-jung won a BAFTA for Minari. Ultimately, Youn Yuh-jung also won the Oscar.
Mosaku will have tough competition, especially from Teyana Taylor, who was a strong contender after winning a Golden Globe. Even though Taylor was only on screen for the first half hour of the movie, her powerful portrayal of Perfidia Beverly Hills really impressed both audiences and awards voters.
Other potential nominees are Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, the stars of the Norwegian drama Sentimental Value. While they were likely to receive nominations, they are considered unlikely to win.
Amy Madigan’s nomination for her role as Aunt Gladys in Weapons was a bit unexpected, though many critics and film lovers were pleased. While the Academy did recognize horror last year with Demi Moore’s nomination for The Substance, Weapons hadn’t received much attention in major awards discussions, making Madigan a long-shot contender.
With Oscar night drawing near, the statuette could be anyone’s. – Katelyn Mensah
Our predicted winner: Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)
Who will win and should win best director?
I’m so excited about this year’s Best Director nominees! It’s great to see three first-timers in the running, alongside a director who’s already taken home the Oscar. And honestly, there’s one nominee with four previous nominations who I think has to be the frontrunner – they’ve been consistently amazing!
Many predicted Guillermo del Toro or Yorgos Lanthimos would be among the final five nominees. However, Josh Safdie became a strong contender after his December film, Marty Supreme, gained attention, particularly for Timothée Chalamet’s captivating performance as an ambitious con artist. This marks Safdie’s first Oscar nomination in any category and is his first solo film since 2008, following his split from his co-directing brother Benny in 2024.
Joachim Trier was nominated for writing the screenplay for The Worst Person in the World (2021), but this is his first nomination for directing, thanks to Sentimental Value. The film, which centers on a reunion between two sisters and their long-lost filmmaker father (played by Stellan Skarsgård), received four acting nominations, though only Skarsgård is in contention to win. While Trier is unlikely to win for directing, the film is a contender for Best International Feature at the Academy Awards and is currently streaming on Mubi.
Chloé Zhao, who won an Oscar in 2021 for Nomadland, is only the second woman to ever win the Best Director award, following Kathryn Bigelow’s win for The Hurt Locker in 2010. Zhao is now nominated again for directing Hamnet, a film based on Maggie O’Farrell’s novel about the death of Shakespeare’s son. Both Zhao and O’Farrell are also nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay. However, many believe the film’s best chance of winning comes from Jessie Buckley’s performance as Shakespeare’s wife, Agnes, who is a strong contender for an Oscar.
I’m so thrilled to see Ryan Coogler finally nominated as a director! He’s already shown incredible talent as a producer with films like ‘Judas and the Black Messiah’ and as a songwriter for ‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,’ but ‘Sinners’ is truly something special. It’s amazing to me that he’s only the seventh Black director to ever receive this recognition, following in the footsteps of legends like John Singleton, Lee Daniels, Steve McQueen, Barry Jenkins, Jordan Peele, and Spike Lee. Everyone’s talking about ‘Sinners’ – it’s leading the Oscars with an incredible 16 nominations, and I have a feeling Coogler will take home an award for his truly original screenplay. It’s a genre-bending story about twin brothers facing both racism and something even more terrifying in 1930s Mississippi, and it’s just brilliant.
Paul Thomas Anderson is widely expected to finally win an Oscar this year for his darkly comedic thriller, One Battle After Another. This is his fourth nomination for Best Director – following There Will Be Blood, Phantom Thread, and Licorice Pizza – and his fourteenth Oscar nomination overall. The film stars Leonardo DiCaprio as a confused former revolutionary being pursued by a relentless military enemy, played brilliantly by Sean Penn. Anderson is also nominated for Best Film and Best Adapted Screenplay. Having already received top honors from the Golden Globes, Directors Guild, and BAFTA Awards, it seems likely that this acclaimed director will be a winner on March 15th. – Jeremy Aspinall
Our predicted winner: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
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The 98th Academy Awards will take place on Sunday 15 March.
Authors
Patrick Cremona is TopMob’s Senior Film Writer, covering new movies released in theaters and on streaming services. He’s been with the site since October 2019, and during that time has interviewed many famous actors and reviewed films of all kinds.
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