Polygon-based Polymarket hits $2 billion in volumes after bets on ‘Satoshi’

All-time volumes on Polymarket surpassed $2 billion
Despite the growth, POL registered a 10% drop in seven days

As a seasoned analyst with over a decade of experience in the crypto market, I have seen my fair share of ups and downs. The growth of Polymarket, a blockchain-based betting site, is undeniably impressive, with all-time trading volumes surpassing $2 billion. However, recent data shows a 10% drop in POL over the past seven days, which raises some concerns about its long-term potential.

Over the past few months, there’s been a significant increase in user engagement and transactions at the blockchain betting platform, Polymarket. As a matter of fact, as reported by Dune Analytics, total trading volumes on this platform have now exceeded $2 billion, with much of this growth stemming from predictions about the U.S Presidential election winner.

During just the month of September, transactions on the Polygon betting platform reached a staggering $486 million. With current month-to-date volumes already exceeding $161 million, we could potentially see this figure rise substantially by the end of this month.

On October 3rd, as per data from Artemis, the number of daily active wallets on Polymarket reached its highest point in two weeks, indicating that an increasing number of users are signing up and engaging with the platform.

On that day, the daily transactions on the platform soared to a record high of 93,000.

So, what is driving the growth of this blockchain-based betting site?

U.S election betting

2024 U.S Presidential election has sparked enthusiasm at Polymarket, with the “Who will win the U.S Presidential Election in 2024?” market boasting over $1.19 billion in wagers.

As of the current reporting, Donald Trump, the previous U.S President, holds a slight edge with approximately 49.9% of the wagers, whereas Kamala Harris follows closely behind with around 49.1% of the bets in her favor.

The bet expires on November 4, which is a day prior to the U.S Presidential Elections. Interestingly, election predictions sparked curiosity about Polymarket, but it soon attracted attention for its diverse prediction markets as well.

Satoshi bet gains traction

Currently, there’s been an increase in attention towards Polymarket, sparked by the ongoing conjecture about the true identity of the inventor of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto.

According to AMBCrypto’s report, an upcoming HBO documentary scheduled for release on October 8th claims it can reveal the true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto. This announcement has sparked a significant amount of interest, leading to a bet titled “Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?” on Polymarket. The betting volume has already reached $814,000, just two days after its launch.

As of now, it’s been found that about half (49.5%) of the bets placed suggest that the late computer scientist Len Sassaman, who passed away in 2011, will eventually be unveiled as the creator of Bitcoin, known as Satoshi. This theory is fueled by Sassaman’s background as a member of the International Financial Cryptography Association.

Is Polymarket’s growth good for POL?

Polymarket operates within the Polygon’s layer 2 system. While the use of this gambling platform has increased the activity on the network, there hasn’t been a similar impact on Polygon’s original token, which was previously called MATIC.

At the moment of reporting, POL was valued at $0.384 following a 1.92% increase within the past day. However, this growth comes after a significant drop of more than 10% in just seven days.

On the hourly chart, it appeared that Pol was moving inside an expanding upward wedge formation. Typically, this pattern indicates that bears could potentially dominate the price movement, suggesting a possible downward trend.

Despite the downward trend appearing strong, there were indications that its strength was waning as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) line neared the Signal line from below. If the RSI subsequently rises significantly above the Signal line, it would challenge the current bearish outlook.

In simpler terms, when the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line meets up with the Signal line, it suggests a similar perspective. But to strengthen the bullish prediction, we’d want the MACD bars to become green in color instead.

If bears dominate the market, it’s possible that the price of POL may drop to retest its support level at $0.37. Yet, if there’s increased buying interest, POL might overcome its resistance at $0.38, potentially leading to further upward movement.

As a researcher delving into the current state of POL, it’s been intriguing to notice the buzz surrounding the potential introduction of Polymarket’s native token. If the rumors are true, as suggested by The Information, this coin would serve as the backbone for the operational functioning of their betting platform.

2024-10-06 00:08

U.S election betting

Satoshi bet gains traction

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