As a seasoned analyst with years of experience in the financial markets, I have seen my fair share of manipulation and market shenanigans. The latest developments surrounding Polymarket and the 2024 US presidential election are raising red flags that are hard to ignore.
The actions of leading Polymarket wagerers have sparked worries that they might be influencing, or even manipulating, the reliability of outcomes in the decentralized forecasting market.
The chances of Donald Trump becoming the U.S. President in 2024 have been substantially impacted by an influential bettor known as “Fredi9999” on Polymarket, who has invested over $20 million in wagers favoring Trump’s presidential bid.
Just a few days ago, it was announced that the likelihood of Trump’s victory in the upcoming presidential elections, as per the data from CryptoMoon, had soared to an all-time high of 60.2% on October 16th. As a crypto investor, I find this intriguing and am keeping a close eye on any updates regarding this development.
The expanding advantage Trump holds is causing some doubts, as it seems disconnected from actual world occurrences that might account for this change in public opinion, suggests Alex Momot, the founder, and CEO of Peanut Trade.
Momot told CryptoMoon:
“What’s paradoxical is that the situation on Polymarket is now influencing the real world, where many people believe what they see on the platform. The upcoming US presidential election will serve as a key example for assessing the reliability of prediction markets.”
With the election rapidly approaching, it’s becoming increasingly crucial to scrutinize any signs of manipulation within forecasting markets. This is particularly relevant as we enter the final three weeks leading up to Election Day.
Is “Fredi9999” controlling the top Trump bettor accounts?
According to an anonymous political wagerer known as Domer, it appears that Fredi has played a substantial role in determining the pricing within the Trump prediction market.
Additionally, the pattern of transactions indicates that Fredi might be managing the leading four “Trump whales” on Polymarket. In a post on October 16, Domer stated:
“The accounts all receive very large deposits from Kraken and immediately start betting on Trump everywhere. Theo received a large deposit and plowed it into Trump winning the popular vote, sending it from 26% to 39% in a few hours.”
Accounts allegedly received deposits of either $1 million or $500,000, which has sparked speculation that money is intentionally being positioned to influence the likelihood of Trump’s victory.
When asked about the Polymarket whale’s identity and motivation, Domer told CryptoMoon:
“My guess is it is a true believer who is very rich and trying to make a big bet. He is getting more confident as the price goes higher, and is in a confirmation bias loop where new information keeps increasing his confidence.”
Polymarket’s reliability questioned by recent poll swings
According to Momot, the increasing reliance on Polymarket as a source of data is causing worry due to potential risks of manipulation.
“It’s not surprising that the time has come for someone to try manipulating the platform using financial resources. The situation we’re seeing now is likely to become more common, especially with every new high-stakes bet. We’ll witness more instances of multi-accounting and fake address claims aimed at falsifying outcomes.”
Nevertheless, Elon Musk, a renowned billionaire, suggests that prediction markets based on decentralization might offer greater precision in forecasting election outcomes when compared to conventional polls. This viewpoint was expressed following his increased backing of Donald Trump.
Trump’s odds rise across traditional betting platforms
In simpler terms, the chances of Trump winning again are increasing according to conventional betting platforms, though not as significantly as suggested by the Polymarket odds.
Trump’s odds stood at 60.7% on Polymarket at 11:19 am UTC on Oct. 18.
Simultaneously, the chances of Trump were estimated at approximately 58.8% on Betfair, 57% on Kalshi, 56% on Predictit, and 58% on Smarkets.
Based on combined betting odds from leading online platforms, it appears that Donald Trump has a probability of about 58.1% winning the next election, whereas Kamala Harris is estimated to have around 40.4% chances, as per data collected by RealClearPolling.
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2024-10-18 14:29