- Coinbase analyst sees a 30-40% chance of approval for Ethereum ETFs.
- Ethereum’s dominance and performance are at a low, suggesting a need for positive development soon.
As an analyst with a background in traditional finance and experience following the crypto market closely, I believe that there is a 30-40% chance of SEC approval for Ethereum ETFs based on the latest developments and analyst predictions. However, this approval would come as a surprise to many given Ethereum’s recent status as an “unregistered security” and the general sentiment in the market.
As an analyst, I’ve observed that there’s a widely held perspective in the financial community that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may not grant approval for any spot Ethereum [ETH] Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) based on several indicators suggesting the SEC holds Ethereum as its latest regulatory adversary.
The SEC has yet to provide definitive information regarding their plans for approving these ETFs. Therefore, albeit unlikely, there remains a possibility that they will be given the green light.
However, if they do, is the market ready for that impact? How would Ethereum’s price react?
Approval odds for Ethereum ETFs
Coinbase institutional research analyst David Han suggests there could be a surprising upside.
According to Han’s monthly outlook report published by Coinbase on May 15th, the probability of approval falls within the range of 30-40%.
According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, he gives a 35% probability for an approval. In contrast, based on a survey conducted by Polymarket within the crypto community, the estimated likelihood is only 7%.
Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock, expressed a hopeful viewpoint in an interview on CNBC. He suggested that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could still give the green light to spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs), despite viewing Ethereum as a security.
What does the data tell us?
If the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) gives its approval for an Ethereum Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF), there could be a sudden increase in market activity. Nevertheless, Ethereum’s current influence and recent track record are showing signs of reaching their all-time lows.
Its SEC-proclaimed status as a security has negatively impacted investment sentiment.
As an analyst, I would interpret this statement as follows: I believe there will be minimal price movement for Ether in the short term because there is currently no anticipated approval or significant news driving the market.
As an analyst, I’ve observed that Bitcoin‘s [BTC] price remained relatively unmoved despite the approval of its Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) earlier in the year. Surprisingly, the anticipation within the community was quite high regarding this development.
Lately, the Funding Rate has been fairly low or even negative, potentially signaling a decrease in bullish enthusiasm or heightened wariness amongst traders. This trend was particularly noticeable during market declines, such as in mid-April.
As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed an intriguing development in the market: Open Interest has been on the rise, even as trading volumes have decreased. This could imply that traders are positioning themselves for potential large price swings in the near future. By building up their positions now, they might be gearing up to capitalize on significant market movements.
Over the past two days, Ethereum’s price trend has been consistently upward, with the peak at around $3,160 potentially serving as a temporary barrier for further growth.
Read Ethereum’s [ETH] Price Prediction 2024-25
Observing the price response when it hits this level again is crucial for formulating short-term investment plans.
If Ethereum’s bullish trend continues, there’s a good chance it will surmount the present resistance point. The market’s robust upward trajectory and successful price rebound following dips support this possibility.
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2024-05-19 04:07