U.S. movie ticket sales totaled just $2.28 billion in 2020, largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic. While sales improved to $4.87 billion in 2021 and $7.5 billion in 2022, and further to $9 billion in 2023, 2024 saw a slight drop to $8.56 billion, with projections for 2025 around $8.3 billion. Although these numbers seem significant, they’re lower than pre-pandemic levels. In fact, domestic box office revenue exceeded $11 billion each year from 2015 to 2019, meaning recent earnings haven’t kept pace with inflation.
Streaming services are definitely impacting movie theater ticket sales. However, 2026 has a lot of exciting new movies coming out, and it could be a record-breaking year for the box office. So, which film will earn the most money? Let’s take a look.
Long-Shots
January isn’t expected to have any big box office hits, although Sam Raimi’s Send Help might surprise us. February looks more promising with Wuthering Heights. There’s buzz about its steamy scenes, which could attract fans of Fifty Shades of Grey. Plus, with stars like Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi, it has the potential to be a big success. Project Hail Mary in March could also earn around $300 million globally, which would be good news for Wuthering Heights as well, but it’s unlikely to be the top-grossing film of the first half of 2026.
July also features two other big films expected to perform strongly: the live-action version of Moana and Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey. However, they aren’t projected to reach the same level of success as the month’s top movie.
When thinking about how the live-action Moana might perform, it’s helpful to look at the live-action How to Train Your Dragon. That film earned $636.4 million globally, making it the highest-grossing of the four Dragon movies, but not by a large margin. However, Moana‘s live-action remake might not follow the same pattern. Similar to Dragon, the timing feels a bit premature, making it unlikely to surpass the $1.059 billion earned by Moana 2 (released recently and kicking off a reboot). Still, it could easily outperform the original 2016 Moana, which made $643.3 million. A worldwide gross of $800 million seems achievable.
Let’s look at Christopher Nolan’s previous films to get an idea of how well The Odyssey might do in theaters. We’re excluding Tenet because its release during the COVID-19 pandemic makes it an outlier. Interstellar earned $771 million, Dunkirk made $533.7 million, and Oppenheimer was a huge success with $975.8 million. While The Odyssey is expected to be popular, matching Oppenheimer‘s success – which benefited from strong positive reviews – will be difficult. We predict The Odyssey‘s box office will fall somewhere between Interstellar and Oppenheimer. However, if it surpasses The Dark Knight Rises’ $1.115 billion to become Nolan’s highest-grossing film, it would be surprising, but not entirely unexpected.
Long-Shots: November & December
Several potentially successful films are scheduled for release in November and December, but it’s still wise to be careful with predictions. November features The Cat in the Hat and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, and December will see the release of the third Jumanji movie starring Jack Black, Dwayne Johnson, Karen Gillan, and Kevin Hart. There’s talk of Dune: Part Three being released on the same day as a major blockbuster, and Warner Bros. is determined to stick to that date, which would likely be a poor decision.
It’s been over two decades since the poorly received live-action The Cat in the Hat movie, so a remake is long overdue. Just like the Mike Myers Cat film followed Jim Carrey’s How the Grinch Stole Christmas, it makes sense to compare this new Cat project to the 2018 animated The Grinch. That film was a huge success, earning $553 million, and a similar box office result wouldn’t be surprising for a new Cat in the Hat movie.
The most successful Hunger Games movie was Catching Fire, which earned $869 million worldwide. While Sunrise on the Reaping probably won’t reach that level, it seems to be generating more excitement than The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes. If we average the box office numbers of those two films, Sunrise on the Reaping could potentially earn around $610 million.
While Jumanji: The Next Level earned about $160 million less than the first hit, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle ($802 million versus $962.5 million), the next installment likely won’t see such a large decrease. We can estimate it will either perform similarly to The Next Level or drop by around $50 million. The fact that this is the final new Jumanji movie may also attract audiences looking for a special event.
As a huge fan, I was thrilled with Denis Villeneuve’s adaptation of the first Dune book, split across two amazing films. While Dune Messiah has its devotees, I think Dune: Part Two really represented the peak commercial potential for this franchise, hitting around $715 million at the box office. If a potential Part Three can match that, especially considering Part Two made $300 million more than Part One, it’ll be a win. Honestly, given how much the fanbase has grown with these films, I’d bet Part Three easily clears $700 million – it feels like a safe prediction!
Dead Heat Horses
As we discussed, Wuthering Heights and Project Hail Mary aren’t expected to be the best-selling books of the first half of the year. The Mandalorian & Grogu or Toy Story 5 will likely take that spot. However, Supergirl could surprise us and become the top seller if it performs exceptionally well.
Honestly, those numbers feel a little optimistic. Right now, I’m predicting The Mandalorian will pull in around $1.077 billion globally – about the same as The Rise of Skywalker. I’m estimating Toy Story 5 will land near the $1.073 billion Toy Story 4 made. And for Supergirl to be considered a win, she’ll need to get close to her cousin Superman’s $616.8 million at the box office.
July’s Minions 3 is expected to perform well, and looking at the previous Despicable Me and Minions films gives a good idea of its potential. The original Despicable Me earned $544 million globally, followed by $970 million for the second film. The first Minions spin-off actually surpassed them both, bringing in an impressive $1.16 billion.
The Despicable Me series had its highest earnings with the original film, but subsequent movies have consistently earned between $900 million and $1 billion – Despicable Me 3 made $1.034 billion, Minions: The Rise of Gru earned $940 million, and Despicable Me 4 brought in $972 million. It’s probable the new Minions film will perform similarly, staying within that $900 million range. Even if audiences start to lose interest, the movie is still expected to be profitable.
We didn’t mention Spider-Man: Brand New Day when discussing other big July releases on purpose. We expect it to perform even better than Moana and The Odyssey, so it makes more sense to compare its sales to other Spider-Man films.
The Spider-Man movies starring Tom Holland have consistently increased in box office revenue – Homecoming earned $881 million, Far From Home brought in $1.133 billion, and No Way Home reached $1.976 billion. While the next film, Brand New Day, will likely be smaller in scope than the event-driven No Way Home (which brought back villains from past movies), the Marvel Cinematic Universe has faced challenges since 2021. Still, Brand New Day is expected to perform better than the other three MCU movies planned for 2025, and by a significant margin. A box office similar to Far From Home’s $1.133 billion is a reasonable expectation, especially considering the cliffhanger ending of No Way Home left audiences wanting more.
Big Question Mark Movies
Steven Spielberg consistently delivers successful films, but his biggest box office hits largely came from the 1970s, 80s, and 90s. In the 2000s, films like Minority Report and Catch Me If You Can performed well, earning $358.4 million and $352.1 million respectively. However, it took major blockbuster events like War of the Worlds ($603.9 million) and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull ($786.6 million) to reach even higher levels of success. In the 2010s, Ready Player One was the only film to significantly exceed $300 million, earning $608 million. Early indications suggest his newest film, Disclosure Day, will perform similarly. Audiences clearly enjoy Spielberg’s science fiction movies.
Clayface is a bit of a wild card when it comes to predicting its success. Superhero movies have felt predictable lately, but this DCU film feels like a real change of pace. Despite being a scary, R-rated movie, a $400 million box office seems like a reasonable high estimate. However, Joker proved that R-rated films can be huge hits, earning over a billion dollars. It’s a reminder that strong word-of-mouth and good marketing can really make a difference.
The Likely Victor
Despite some recent criticism, Avengers: Doomsday is still the most eagerly awaited movie of 2026. The future of the entire Marvel Cinematic Universe feels like it depends on this film. Adding the X-Men back into the mix, plus Robert Downey Jr. taking on a new role, definitely explains all the excitement.
Everyone is wondering if the new movie, Doomsday, will make money. Reports say it cost around $600 million to create – $200 million more than Avengers: Endgame and more than any other film, including Jurassic World Dominion and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. This would make Doomsday the most expensive movie ever made.
The first Avengers movie earned $1.521 billion at the box office, with production and pre-marketing costs of $225 million, making it a massive success. Age of Ultron brought in around $100 million less, with a budget of $365 million, but was still a major hit. Infinity War earned approximately $2.05 billion on a budget of around $325 million (before marketing costs), becoming the team’s biggest film at that time. Avengers: Endgame had a production cost of over $350 million, but it grossed about $2.8 billion, making it one of the highest-grossing and most successful films ever made.
While Doomsday likely won’t reach the massive box office numbers of Endgame, the biggest film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, it’s still expected to earn over $2 billion. It’s projected to perform similarly to Infinity War, which was the first part of a huge, two-part story.
Top Ten
1) Avengers: Doomsday — $2.05 Billion
2) Spider-Man: Brand New Day — $1.150 Billion
3) The Mandalorian & Grogu — $1.077 Billion
4) Toy Story 5 — $1.073 Billion
5) Minions 3 — $950 Million
6) Jumanji 3 — $910 Million
7) The Odyssey — $875 Million
8) Moana — $825 Million
9) Dune: Part Three — $700 Million
10) The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping — $610 Million
https://comicbook.com/movies/list/10-best-action-movies-of-2025-ranked/embed/#
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2025-12-30 01:20