As a seasoned researcher with a background in data analysis and market trends, I find myself intrigued by the ongoing debate surrounding prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. Having delved into both traditional polling and prediction marketplaces, I can’t help but notice the captivating allure of these platforms that seem to offer a more unadulterated glimpse into public sentiment.
The substantial 20-point advantage that Former President Trump holds over Vice President Kamala Harris on Polymarket has raised suspicions about potential interference. However, Tarek Mansour, founder of Kalshi prediction market, asserts that these outcomes are genuine and not influenced by artificial manipulation, backing up his claim with similar data from Kalshi.
Initially, Mansour clarified that the assumption in media reports about a few big whales influencing the odds towards Trump was incorrect. As per Kalshi’s founder, the average wager on Kamala Harris is greater than the average wager on Donald Trump. Specifically, the typical bet for Harris stands at $85, whereas the common bet for Trump is $58.
Additionally, the founder shared that a higher number of users on the Kalshi platform are wagering on Trump’s victory, and this trend is mirrored by the 20-point advantage shown on Polymarket, which seems to correspond with the number of users who believe Trump will win the November election on Kalshi.
Mansour went on to explain that unlike Polymarket, Kalshi is a prediction market exclusive to Americans. This contrasts with some claims suggesting that the current odds in these markets are being influenced by foreign entities. The founder of Kalshi further emphasized his point by stating that “Prediction markets represent an unbiased source of information.
The new source of truth and a public good?
There has been intense discussion among business leaders and commentators about whether forecasting markets provide better insights than conventional opinion polls. Prominent figures such as Elon Musk, a billionaire, strongly assert that prediction markets are generally more reliable than polls.
Musk contends that people perform better and deliver more precise outcomes when there’s real money involved. Yet, skeptics note a potential issue with the authenticity of the results on that specific prediction platform since U.S. residents are prohibited from using it.
During parts of August and most of September, Vice President Harris was consistently ahead of Former President Trump in predictions made on Polymarket. Although Trump occasionally took a slight lead, it was usually by only a few percentage points. However, starting from early October, Trump significantly boosted his chances of winning the Oval Office on the prediction platform.
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2024-10-21 01:07